Gale Warning 568, NWS Anchorage, AK

572 
FZAK61 PAFC 122342
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
342 PM AKDT SUN OCT 12 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-131330-
342 PM AKDT SUN OCT 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 983 MB LOW AT 58N 149W WILL MOVE TO 56N 151W LATE TONIGHT AND
DEEPEN TO 978 MB THEN MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF BY MON
AFTERNOON. A 978 MB LOW AT 55N 137W THIS EVENING WILL MOVE TO 54N
139W TUE AFTERNOON AT 983 MB. A 995 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 59N 144W
LATE MON NIGHT AND MOVE TO 58N 149W TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-131330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
342 PM AKDT SUN OCT 12 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E TO S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E TO NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ352-131330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
342 PM AKDT SUN OCT 12 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. W OF 150W...W TO NW WIND INCREASING
TO 35 TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. W OF
150W...SEAS BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E TO NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 20 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

024 
FZAK61 PAFC 131152
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
352 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-140215-
352 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 978 MB LOW AT 56N 151W WILL WEAKEN TO 984 MB MB WELL SOUTH OF
THE GULF BY MON AFTERNOON. A 973 MB LOW WILL APPROACH 55N 137W
LATE TONIGHT AND WEAKEN TO 982 MB THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION.

$$

PKZ351-140215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
352 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT EARLY BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE UP TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ352-140215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
352 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING NE 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
131 PM AKDT SAT OCT 11 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM. THERE IS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND ANOTHER
OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY. ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS A
DISSIPATING SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
AS WELL AS A STRENGTHENING LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GULF...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW EVEN JUST
24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST. SOME PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...BUT WITH A BIT OF A NOD TOWARD THE REGIONAL GEM WHICH
IS STRONGER (BUT SLOWER). FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP AS COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEAST EAST TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE LOW WILL WRAP AROUND TO THE WEST AND APPROACH KODIAK ISLAND.
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY NOT GET FAR INLAND AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF. THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOWS WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN
RAPIDLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE DYNAMICS
ARE WEAK AND OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT DRY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE KUSKOKWIM BASIN
AND DELTA REGIONS.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST. THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST DRIVEN BY A FAIRLY
STRONG JET OFF OF ASIA (AROUND 150 KNOTS).

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
IMPACT THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND ALASKA. OVERALL...A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EAST COAST OF RUSSIA ALL THE WAY
TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL BRING A
REPRIEVE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF
COAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...A LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. HOWEVER...MUCH
OF THIS ENERGY WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE PANHANDLE WHERE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED...WHILE THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MAY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO THE OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE GULF. AS SATURDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE RESULTANT LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS
OF TYPHOON VONGFONG...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
IN ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURE BEING BETWEEN 4 AND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OVER THE BERING SEA...A WEAK VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER RUSSIA
WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA AND
PRIBILOF ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EXTRATROPICAL REMAINS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA/WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND LIKELY BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BERING SEA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE TIMING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW HAS SLOWED 12 TO
18 HOURS FROM YESTERDAY AS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC CREATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN
ITS WAKE. REGARDLESS...A WET AND WINDY PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING SEA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 150 155 165 170
                   172 179 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

LUDWIG/MCLAY OCT 14