Gale Warning 550, NWS Anchorage, AK

685 
FZAK51 PAFC 300123 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPDATED ZONE 119

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301415-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1004 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES TO 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF
YAKUTAT AT 1011 MB TUE AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC MOVES TO 450 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-301415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 10 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-301415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-301415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO
25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-301415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING
TO 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-301415-
PORT VALDEZ-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT BY
LATE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO
20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-301415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-301415-
VALDEZ ARM-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-301415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. NEAR WHITTIER...GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEAR WHITTIER...GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-301415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-301415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-301415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-301415-
CHINIAK BAY-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-301415-
MARMOT BAY-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-301415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-301415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-301415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-301415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
523 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

188 
FZAK51 PAFC 301130
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010015-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1002 MB LOW 40 NM WEST OF YAKUTAT WILL WEAKEN TO 1007 MB BEFORE
TRACKING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TO 440 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-010015-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-010015-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO E 15 KT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-010015-
RESURRECTION BAY-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT EARLY DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-010015-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-010015-
PORT VALDEZ-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-010015-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-010015-
VALDEZ ARM-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-010015-
PASSAGE CANAL-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 45 KT MAINLY IN THE MORNING NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-010015-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-010015-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-010015-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
CAPE DANGEROUS...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-010015-
CHINIAK BAY-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-010015-
MARMOT BAY-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-010015-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT .
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE 15 KT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-010015-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-010015-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-010015-
KACHEMAK BAY-
330 AM AKDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
156 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DIGGING
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MAINLAND. SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. BRISK GAP FLOWS WHERE
EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS
EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH PRODUCED SOME LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS
BRISK EASTERLY GALES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...MUCH
OF SW ALASKA WAS DRY.

&&

MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODEL HANDING OF UPPER LEVEL AS WELL AS
SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. DIFFERENCES HOWEVER DO ARISE THU SOUTH OF THE GULF
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW COMPLEX. THE 00Z ECMWF RAPIDLY
DEVELOPED AN OLD TROPICAL SYSTEM AND MOVED SOUTH OF THE GULF ON
THU AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS WHICH DEPICT A BROADER/ELONGATED AND MUCH WEAKER
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE GULF. THE NAM WILL BE INITIALLY
USED THROUGH WED IN THE EAST TO CAPTURE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS...THEN
WILL TRANSITION INTO THE GFS. OUT WEST...THE GFS WILL BE USED FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS. WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF SUPPORTING NW FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. VERY STRONG GAP
FLOWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH GULF AND
EASTERN KENAI PEN AS PRESSURE AND TEMPS GRADIENTS INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE AT A MAXIMUM DURING THE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TUE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE AND
UPPER SUPPORT WANES.

STRONG DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY OF THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL SEE SNOW WITH MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREAD EAST BEHIND THE TROUGH.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS SW
ALASKA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN FOR THE DELTA AND ADJACENT
COAST. THE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY HAMPER ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER BRISTOL BAY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BRISK
EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW COMPLEX OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AK PEN THROUGH WED.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RAIN AND WIND WILL HOLD ON ALONG THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS UNTIL THE LOW TO THE SOUTH FINALLY DROPS FURTHER
INTO THE PACIFIC LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID
WEEK...SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN AND PROVIDING VERY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL SEE
IMPACTS FROM A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (FRI OCT 3 - MON OCT 6)...

ON FRIDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING
EXTENDING INTO SIBERIA...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
ARCTIC AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH...WITH STEADILY DROPPING
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
BE DRY...BUT THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COPPER
BASIN. THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH A LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...SO A CONSERVATIVE MIDDLE
GROUND APPROACH WAS TAKEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. BY
MONDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN GROWS IN MAGNITUDE QUICKLY AS
THE TRACK OF NORTHWEST PACIFIC CYCLONES (POSSIBLY INCLUDING
RECURVING REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES) MOVING INTO THE
BERING BECOMES HIGHLY ERRATIC...THUS RESULTING IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS. WITH THAT
SAID...THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE FALL CAN BE EXPECTED BY THIS
WEEKEND.

- AHSENMACHER

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...119 120 121 126 127 129 130 131 172 174
176 351. FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

RMC/AHSENMACHER SEP 14