Gale Warning 538, NWS Anchorage, AK

515 
FZAK51 PAFC 242258
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251200-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL DISSIPATE
THU AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF FROM THE WEST.

$$

PKZ119-251200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-251200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-251200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
SUBSIDING.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-251200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-251200-
PORT VALDEZ-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-251200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-251200-
VALDEZ ARM-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-251200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT TOWARD MORNING.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
SEAS 1 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-251200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-251200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-251200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ136-251200-
CHINIAK BAY-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-251200-
MARMOT BAY-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-251200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-251200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-251200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-251200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
258 PM AKDT WED SEP 24 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
148 PM AKDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS FLATTENED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE STATE AS IT PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE ARE IN THE INTERIOR
AND NORTHERN ALASKA BUT IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME CLOUDS
TO SOUTHERN ALASKA AS WELL.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND
WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THOUGH THE REGION.
THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BERING SEA AS WELL ANOTHER
LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE 250 MB JET STREAM IS
RUNNING JUST SOUTH OF THE BERING SEA LOW AND OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST AND AROUND THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE GULF.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS NOT MUCH GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AT
ALL WITH A LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND A MUCH STRONGER LOW
WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. GENERALLY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
IS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTH GULF
COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TOMORROW.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY OR
OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z RUNS ON THE GFS NAM AND ECMWF HAVE COALESCED
INTO A COMMON SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
BERING SEA THU AND THE ONE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. WHILE
THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE BERING SEAS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY THEY ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SHOW THEY ARE LOCKING IN
ON HOW THESE LOWS WILL MERGE AND THEN MOVE AFTER THAT.
THIS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW TRACK EXTENDS INTO THE LONGER
RANGE FORECASTS STRETCHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THERE IS SOME CLOUDINESS IN THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. SINCE MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN
AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH AND THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
STRENGTHENS TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS
IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA THROUGH TOMORROW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ANYWHERE
BUT THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE SHOWERS
UNDERNEATH IT APPEAR TO HAVE RATHER HIGH TOPS ON IR SATELLITE AND
IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THESE HEAVY SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BERING TRACKS QUICKLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN TO SOUTHCENTRAL AK...PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG
THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE RAIN WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED
AS UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING SEVERAL DAYS OF DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE BERING. THIS NEXT LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN MORE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING IN THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY 141.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

SEP 14