Gale Warning 535, NWS Anchorage, AK

279 
FZAK51 PAFC 221147
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230100-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 992 MB 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA WILL WEAKEN TO 1011 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 60 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD EARLY TUE MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATES
TUE NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-230100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT OUT OF THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA THIS MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-230100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES THIS
MORNING. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-230100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-230100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-230100-
PORT VALDEZ-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

.TODAY...NORTH TO EAST WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT W WIND 10
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-230100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-230100-
VALDEZ ARM-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-230100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-230100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-230100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-230100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 30 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 7
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-230100-
CHINIAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-230100-
MARMOT BAY-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10
KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-230100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-230100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-230100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-230100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
157 PM AKDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IS PLACE THE PAST NUMBER OF
DAYS IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TODAY. THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA IS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN COAST OF THE STATE
WHICH IS PUSHING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE
250 MB JET STREAM IS RUNNING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BETWEEN 40N
AND 45N AND THEN CURVES AROUND THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE GULF AND IS
RUNNING DUE NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE PANHANDLE BEFORE TURNING
SHARPLY TO THE EAST OVER THE YUKON. THE JET STREAM IS IMPORTANT
TODAY AS IT IS WHAT IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING A SURFACE LOW RUNNING
NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. DUE TO THE JET CURVING BACK
TO THE EAST THIS LOW WILL LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TONIGHT AND
THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD MONTAGUE
ISLAND AS A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE YUKON WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA THERE IS ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL REMAIN IN
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT NOT MAKING MUCH EASTWARD
PROGRESS DUE TO THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE ECMWF AND GEM SEEM TO HAVE PICKED
UP ON THE WAY THE LOW IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS ITS ENERGY
SPLITS WITH SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVING INTO THE YUKON
AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW HEADS TOWARD MONTAGUE ISLAND OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS AND NAM DO HAVE A SIMILAR TRACK BUT THEY AND NOT DETECTING
THE INITIAL STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS THE NEARBY OBSERVATIONS ARE
ALREADY 10 PLUS MB LOWER THAN THE GFS INDICATES AND WELL BELOW THE
NAM SOLUTION AS WELL. AFTER THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE MODELS ARE
ALL VERY MUCH IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA MOVING
EASTWARD SO IT STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THEN CURVES OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
TWO WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY.
THE FIRST IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
UPPER COOK INLET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MOVE TO THE ALCAN
BORDER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND THE FREEZING LEVEL IS LOW
ENOUGH THAT THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL IN
THEM. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
AND GET BREEZY WITH THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. GAPS IN
THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
THE SECOND FEATURE IS THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT IS MOVING
TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL TURN NORTHWEST IN ITS MOTION THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE GULF COAST FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EASTWARD.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IS KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO TOMORROW. SOME CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE EASTERN BERING SEA IS SEEING A DECREASE INT CLOUDS DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION OF THE RIDGE BRINGING DRIER AIR FROM THE MAINLAND
OVER THE AREA. THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND WEST AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAINFALL WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE IN THAT AREA.
EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL
KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE DRIER AIR FROM THE MAINLAND FILTERS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE GENERAL PATTERN EXPECTED WITH AN
UNSEASONALY DRY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN PATTERN DOMINATING THE STATE
AS A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL JET PATTERN CONTINUES. SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND ITS EVENTUAL TRACK INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH IN TRACKING THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTH GULF COAST...BUT IT HAS DRAMATICALLY BACKED OFF ITS PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL THINKING IS THE LOW WILL MAINLY IMPACT
COASTAL LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO THE COPPER BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A
WHOLE...HOWEVER...LARGELY DRY AND QUIESCENT WEATHER FOR ALASKA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

SEP 14