Gale Warning 534, NWS Anchorage, AK

089 
FZAK52 PAFC 201149
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-210100-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. A 970 MB LOW 415 NM
WEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE OVER ATTU AT 985 MB LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
TO 225 NM NORTH OF ATTU AT 988 MB LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-210100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-210100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES W
OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ160-210100-
BRISTOL BAY-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-210100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-210100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-210100-
UNALASKA BAY-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-210100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ173-210100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ174-210100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ175-210100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-210100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ177-210100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ178-210100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ179-210100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-210100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-210100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-210100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
349 AM AKDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT EXCEPT BUILD TO 7
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
146 PM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 35N.
WEST OF THAT THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
BERING SEA WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
KAMCHATKA. THE JET STREAM IS RUNNING SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES AT 135KT
TO 155KT AT THE 250 MB LEVEL.
THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF IS NEAR SEWARD AND PROCEEDING TO THE
NORTHWEST AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE NEXT LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GULF
IS BEGINNING TO FORM AROUND 40N 155W IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH.
THE BERING SEA IS SEEING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE WEST NEAR KAMCHATKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL OVERALL WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES. THE NAM HAS BEEN EXCELLENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THE LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE ONE AREA THAT IS STILL AN
ISSUE IS THE SERIES OF LOWS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE FAR EASTERN GULF
AND MAINLY IMPACT THE PANHANDLE REGION. THE SECOND AND STRONGER
LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE GULF ON A DUE NORTH TRACK
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSE TO CORDOVA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SEEM TO DO THE BEST JOB
MOVING THIS LOW AS IT PROCEEDS NORTHWARD THE ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE
THE BEST OVERALL SOLUTION. THE NAM IS TOO SLOW IN ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND DOES NOT CATCH UP UNTIL THE END OF ITS RUN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE LOWS FORWARD PROGRESS HAS SLOWED. THE GEM
GLOBAL DOES NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AT ALL AND IS NOT
EVEN WORTH LOOKING AT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA IS BRINGING A
LOT OF RAINFALL TO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AS WELL AS LOW CEILING
FOR AVIATION OVER MUCH OF THE COOK INLET REGION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW TREKS ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THERE WILL
BE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW. THESE PRESSURE RISES WILL CAUSE
SOME GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA THIS
EVENING WHICH THEN MOVE ALONG THE COPPER RIVER AND TURNAGAIN ARM
AFTER THAT. THE GUSTY WINDS FROM PRESSURE RISES OFTEN DO NOT LAST
MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THEY CAN BE STRONG AND THE EVENT
CAN BEGIN AND END ABRUPTLY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA
WITH FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BUT THE REST OF THE REGION
WILL JUST HAVE SOME PASSING SHOWERS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA IS BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS BUT ALSO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THERE IS AN AREA OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WHICH MAY INCREASE IN
SIZE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT THESE SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING...WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE COPPER
BASIN STRETCHING SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE COPPER
BASIN AND ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AS
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIODS.
THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

SEP 14