Gale Warning 504, NWS Anchorage, AK

015 
FZAK61 PAFC 162318
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
318 PM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-171415-
318 PM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS MOVES TO 53N 155W AT 982 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
LOW THEN MOVES TO 58N 146W AT 977 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-171415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
318 PM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SW 10 KT BY LATE
AFTERNOON WEST OF 147W. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE TO NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N TO E WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING S TO W IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ352-171415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
318 PM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W OF 147W...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING W WIND 15 TO
30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

833 
FZAK61 PAFC 171155
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
355 AM AKDT WED SEP 17 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-180200-
355 AM AKDT WED SEP 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVES TO 53N 153W AT 982
MB THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW THEN MOVES TO 57N 145W AT 974 MB
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENS TO 984 MB NEAR 59N 145W LATE 
THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-180200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
355 AM AKDT WED SEP 17 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT 
W OF 147W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ352-180200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
355 AM AKDT WED SEP 17 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT...BECOMING VARIABLE 10 TO 20 KT 
W OF 147W. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

771 
FZAK61 PAFC 172307
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-181330-
307 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 984 MB LOW NEAR 53N 153W WILL MOVE TO 57N 144W AT 973 MB THU
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 61N 147W AT 991 MB FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-181330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
307 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING W 15 TO 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ352-181330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
307 PM AKDT WED SEP 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING NW 20 TO 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF 149W. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT BUILDING TO 8 TO 16 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

386 
FZAK61 PAFC 181131
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
331 AM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-190130-
331 AM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR 55N 148W WILL MOVE TO 59N 141W AT 980 MB LATE
TONIGHT. AS PART OF THE SAME LOW COMPLEX A NEW CENTER WILL
DEVELOP NEAR 59N 147W AT 975 MB THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO 59N
144W AT 986 MB LATE FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING AND MOVING
INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-190130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
331 AM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N TO E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ352-190130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
331 AM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W OF 147W...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING W BY AFTERNOON.
E OF 147W...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING W 25 TO 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

416 
FZAK61 PAFC 182341
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
341 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-191500-
341 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 974 MB LOW NEAR 57N 144W WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR 61N 147W FRI
AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AS IT CONTINUES INLAND.

$$

PKZ351-191500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
341 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-191500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
341 PM AKDT THU SEP 18 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

138 
FZAK61 PAFC 191140
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
340 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-200115-
340 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 981 MB LOW NEAR 59N 147W WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR 60N 148W FRI
AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AS IT CONTINUES INLAND. WEAK 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH 
LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-200115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
340 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-200115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
340 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
118 PM AKDT MON SEP 15 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE ALASKAN DOMAIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE STRONG
LOW THAT HAS DICTATED REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MORE THAN A
WEEK IS NOW SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED...IN FACT THE UPPER CIRCULATION
HAS LARGELY WEAKENED INTO AN OPEN WAVE THAT IS NOW ROTATING
NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN ALASKA. A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN MOVED
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF RAIN AGAIN FALLING ALONG THE COASTLINES. DRIER AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT HAS NOW WORKED INTO THE AREA...AND AFTER A BRIEF
LULL THE DEEP INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS STARTING TO BE
REALIZED IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER
THE KENAI PENINSULA HEADING NORTHWARD TOWARD ANCHORAGE AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF THE ORIGINAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THIS ARRANGEMENT...COUPLED WITH WEAK PRESSURE RISES MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH...IS CREATING A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR MODERATE
STRENGTH SOUTH TO EAST GAP WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE USUAL CHANNELED
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN ALASKA COASTLINE.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WINDS ACROSS THE MAINLAND ARE
GENERALLY LIGHTER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE WIDESPREAD BUT LESS
INTENSE ACROSS. WITH THE LEFTOVERS OF THE LOW MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE NORTH- NORTHWEST...OVERALL WIND FLOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE ONSHORE. AN AREA OF FOG/STRATUS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY OUT OVER BRISTOL BAY...WHICH SHOULD MAKE A GRADUAL
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OUT OVER THE
BERING A WEAK LOW IS MOVING ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE CHAIN. THIS
LOW IS APPROACHING DUTCH...BUT IS A FAIRLY SOFT-HITTER AS FAR AS
BERING SEA STORMS ARE CONCERNED...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MAJOR IMPACTS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE ALL IN REASONABLE SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM (84 HOUR) FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOW CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH THE ALEUTIANS. AS THIS STORM APPROACHES THE WATERS
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AROUND MIDWEEK IT WILL ABSORB THE
LEFTOVER ENERGY IN THE BERING SEA AND RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
STORM IN THE WESTERN GULF BY THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. AS
EXPECTED...THERE HAVE BEEN TIMING AND STRENGTH ADJUSTMENTS WITH
EACH MODEL RUN...THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE ERRATIC/VARIABLE
THAN THE AMERICAN MODELS. THUS PREFER TO LEAN FAIRLY HEAVILY ON
THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW REMNANTS CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE COPPER BASIN IN A RATHER CLOUDY AND SHOWERY PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST PERIODS. THERE MAY BE AN IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG STORM TAKING AIM AT THE WESTERN GULF WILL USHER MORE
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONE OF THE BIG REMAINING QUESTIONS WITH THE
NEXT STORM IS HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OPENS UP A DOWNSLOPE HOLE ON THE INLAND SIDE OF THE
COASTAL RANGES. THIS SHOULD SAFELY HAPPEN BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE PRETTY
WET...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...BEFORE THE
DOWNSLOPING KICKS IN. MEANWHILE...THE COASTLINE WILL CERTAINLY SEE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS...ALTHOUGH ONE BIG DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PREVIOUS STORM WILL BE A MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION OF
THE FRONT. THUS EXPECT THE EASTERN KENAI/WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AREA TO SEE HIGHER OVERALL TOTALS THAN THE VALDEZ/CORDOVA
CORRIDOR.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT DECAYING LOW
LINGER IN THE AREA. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO MORE
SOUTHERLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BRISTOL BAY OVERNIGHT...WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME OF THE STRATUS OR FOG IN FROM THE OCEAN...WITH A
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE LENGTHENING PERIOD OF DARKNESS ADDING
TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY CHALLENGES OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE ALEUTIANS SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY RELATIVE STANDARDS...AS THE MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ENERGY WILL
CONSOLIDATE AROUND A STRONG NEW LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BERING AND USHER IN A
SURGE OF SEASONABLY COOL AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF BY THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW REMAINING IN
THE VICINITY OF KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATE STRENGTH SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOUTH
OF KODIAK ISLAND AND MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE GULF COAST
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WET PATTERN WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF...WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS FARTHER
INLAND. MEANWHILE...THE EASTERN BERING WILL ALSO REMAIN SHOWERY AS
NORTHERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT HELP TO GENERATE INSTABILITY OVER THAT
REGION.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

AMD/CB SEP 14