Gale Warning 497, NWS Anchorage, AK

810 
FZAK62 PAFC 062251
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
251 PM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071330-
251 PM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 976 MB LOW NEAR 50N 179W WILL WEAKEN TO 983 MB NEAR 54N 179W
SUN AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN TO 988 MB AS IT MOVES NEAR 55N 177W 
MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-071330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
251 PM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-071330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
251 PM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-071330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
251 PM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-071330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
251 PM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

111 
FZAK62 PAFC 071145
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
345 AM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080115-
345 AM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 MB LOW NEAR 53N 178W WILL DRIFT TO 58N 177W AT 991 MB EARLY
TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-080115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
345 AM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-080115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
345 AM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...NE TO SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE TO SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-080115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
345 AM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-080115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
345 AM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
502 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A FAIRLY STRONG OCCLUDED LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE 180 LONGITUDE
LINE ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW IS PUSHING A
GALE-FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLAND CHAIN AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING THIS MORNING. THE OTHER NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE
FEATURE IS ONE THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA
OVER THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS.

BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES RESIDES A FAIRLY STOUT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN BERING SEA...WITH A STRONG
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY JET STREAK CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA HEADED EAST TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GULF ON
THE DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN
ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT YIELDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE FIELD
OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL WAS PREFERRED FOR THE DEEP OCCLUDED LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS COMPARES TO OTHER MODELS. THIS LOW IS NEAR
PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND EXPANDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE BERING SEA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL SPEED SOUTH AND EAST
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AND THEN LEAVE A PIECE OF ENERGY BEHIND
OVER THE AREA TO SHEAR OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AS THE ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GULF TODAY STRONG OFFSHORE GAP WINDS
WILL BE FOUND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WHITTIER AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT UNTIL LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK TO NO ADVECTION TO PUSH IT
OUT...ESPECIALLY AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SOUPY MOIST AIR MASS NEAR
THE SURFACE AND MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINAL FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT NORTH AND/OR EAST
OF PALMER. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO
WOULD EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT ISSUE WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR
WHITTIER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING WESTERLY JET
STREAK HELPS TO INDUCE A WEAK DIFFUSE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THESE WINDS SHOULD PEAK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY WILL
SEE A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
MOSTLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO THE COOK INLET REGION BEFORE THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPANSIVE OCCLUDED
LOW IN THE BERING BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND FOG THIS MORNING NEAR
BRISTOL BAY...CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARD COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE TOWARD MIDWEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

GALE-FORCE WINDS AND STEADY MODERATE RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN BERING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SHOWERS
WITH WEAKENING WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE OCCLUDED LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING AND THEN BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

A SERIES OF RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAYS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK THIS
WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO THE RETURN OF A MUCH WETTER PATTERN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE BERING
SEA. MEANWHILE...THE BERING ALSO LOOKS TO REMAIN RAINY AND WINDY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS
BUT IS THEN REINFORCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WESTERN BERING FROM EASTERN RUSSIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC...PROVIDING FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR MORE
RAINFALL OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...170 172-179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

CC SEP 14