Gale Warning 491, NWS Anchorage, AK

630 
FZAK52 PAFC 272351
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281300-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 MB LOW NEAR PILOT POINT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF
TONIGHT. A 994 MB LOW 510 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU MOVES TO 195 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL FRI AFTERNOON WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TO
1000 MB.

$$

PKZ150-281300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW IN THE EVENING. GUSTS TO 35
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-281300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-281300-
BRISTOL BAY-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-281300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-281300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-281300-
UNALASKA BAY-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-281300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH UNIMAK PASS IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-281300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-281300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-281300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-281300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 7 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-281300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ178-281300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ179-281300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-281300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-281300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-281300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
351 PM AKDT WED AUG 27 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
404 PM AKDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE REMNANTS OF A STACKED AND DECAYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /NOW AN
OPEN WAVE/ CAN BE SEEN SWIRLING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RADAR SURFACE REFLECTIONS NOW WELL TO THE EAST OF
CAPE SUCKLING. THE NEXT OF TWO SYSTEMS CAN VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS DIVING SOUTH FROM SIBERIA
AND WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINLAND COAST BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE GULF. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS JUST SOUTH OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE WESTERN BERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...SHOWERS ARE WORKING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE KENAI PENINSULA...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ALL GUIDANCE IS LOCK IN STEP WITH
EACH OTHER ON THE EXIT OF THE OPEN WAVE SHIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT
IS BEING HANDLED WELL ACROSS THE BOARD. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
EMERGE AT THE SURFACE BETWEEN GUIDANCE AS THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AKPEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVERALL TIMING AND INTENSITY
IS SIMILAR. THE NAM AND CANADIAN ARE THE STRONGEST AND SLOWEST
WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...THOUGH THE DIFFERENCES WERE
ONLY WITHIN 1-2 HPA AND 100 NM OF EACH OTHER. ALL MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A BIG SURGE OF
COLD AIR DIVING IN BEHIND IT. PERHAPS IT IS A SIGN OF THE CHANGING
SEASONS...

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RELATIVELY DECENT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
AND SHIFT EAST A HEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...HELPING TO KEEP THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER TONIGHT. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON BRINGING IN THE
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
AS THE LOW WORKING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA DIVES INTO THE GULF
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT
THE TYPICAL RAIN SHADOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
CHUGACH...WHILE ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GENERAL
OFF AND ON SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS SET TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
COASTLINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AKPEN...PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF DILLINGHAM. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
UNTIL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD...BRINGING BACK A LULL IN RAINS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
BERING STRAIT AND A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE BERING
SEA...WILL BRING A QUICK BLAST OF RAIN TO THE PRIBS OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE OUT BY TOMORROW MORNING. ONCE THE RAINS HIT...CEILINGS WILL
FALL AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM IS A DECENT PUSH OF COLD AIR. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN RESPONSE. A NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW/FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TOMORROW AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COASTLINE RESULTING IN THE TURNAGAIN ARM
WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY REGION HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR KODIAK ISLAND RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AIDING IN BRINGING MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE COOK INLET INTO
THE SOUTHEAST MAINLAND. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED NEAR SEWARD WITH MOISTURE BEING PUSHED FARTHER INLAND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST MAINLAND. THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND COOK INLET
EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTHWARD WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS BY MONDAY GOING INTO
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTLINE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY AREA BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY
THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL HAVE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

SS/PLD - AUG 14