Gale Warning 476, NWS Anchorage, AK

873 
FZAK51 PAFC 102346
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111300-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 995 MB LOW 125 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 25 NM EAST
OF KODIAK CITY SUN NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER KODIAK ISLAND MON
MORNING. A FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST GULF EARLY TUE MORNING
AND TRACK TO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-111300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING AND 
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-111300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE
EVENING...AND THEN BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-111300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-111300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-111300-
PORT VALDEZ-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-111300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-111300-
VALDEZ ARM-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-111300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 25 KT DURING THE
EVENING. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-111300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-111300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-111300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-111300-
CHINIAK BAY-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-111300-
MARMOT BAY-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-111300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-111300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-111300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-111300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
346 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
131 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA. A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS SITUATED ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THAT IS
RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD. A WEAK RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS
AND ANOTHER RIDGE IS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH 84 HOURS. THE NAM BEGINS TO STRUGGLE IN THE GULF AFTER 60
HOURS...AND IS NOT QUITE UP TO SPEED WITH THE OTHER MODELS FROM
THE BEGINNING ON THE KAMCHATKA LOW. THERE ARE NATURALLY SOME
DIFFERENCES ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES AND MOISTURE...BUT NOT
ANYTHING TO BE TOO CONCERNED ABOUT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR TO
MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE NORTHWEST GULF LOW WILL SLIDE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP AROUND THIS LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WHICH
IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL EASE UP TONIGHT
AS THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME SURGES EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE.
DOWN-SLOPE EFFECTS WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTH...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
INLAND. AS THE FORMER KAMCHATKA LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST (BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA) THE GULF LOW
WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND BE PUSHED INLAND BY THE BERING LOW
FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS THE BERING LOW MOVES CLOSER
AND CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN SIZE.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE GULF LOW SLIDES EAST. ON SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL
BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES AS
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF LOW STRUGGLES TO GET TOO FAR WEST AND WEAK
RIDGING FORMS AHEAD OF THE KAMCHATKA/BERING SEA LOW. BY LATE
MONDAY THE LEADING FRONT FROM THE BERING SYSTEM WILL REACH THE
SOUTHWEST COAST...PUSHING RAPIDLY INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL BE TEMPERED A LITTLE BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEING FROM THE
SOUTH RATHER THAN THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE LEADING FRONT FROM THE
KAMCHATKA LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW ITSELF
WILL BE CENTERED OVER ATTU ISLAND SUNDAY EVENING...MOVING EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND CENTERED BETWEEN DUTCH HARBOR AND THE
PRIBILOFS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE SPIRIT OF THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH REGARDS TO THE UPPER-LVL
PATTERN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE BERING/ALEUTIAN SYSTEM WILL BE
FILLING BUT BROAD ENOUGH TO EXERT INFLUENCE TO THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AOR. THIS PARENT UPPER-LOW CENTERED NEAR
UNALASKA NEXT WED NIGHT WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE BRISTOL BAY
WESTERN CAPES NEXT FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW INTO SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
AK AND YIELD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN. AS THE
LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...THE SHOWERS ON IT'S BACK SIDE ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND BERING SEA WILL BECOME FEWER AND FAR BETWEEN.

REMNANT ENERGY FROM TYPHOON GENEVIEVE PASSING WEST OF MIDWAY
ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS 35 TO 40N LATITUDE MID NEXT WEEK. IT REMAINS
PLAUSIBLE THAT WHAT IS LEFT OF IT'S ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
SWOOPED UP INTO THE JET STREAM. THE CORE OF THIS UPPER JET
CENTERED AROUND 45N LATITUDE LOOKS TO BEGIN POKING A BIT FURTHER
NORTHWARD AS THE BERING/ALEUTIAN SYSTEM FILLS AND FLATTENS OUT.
REGARDLESS OF ANY TROPICAL ENERGY INTERACTING WITH IT...THE
THREAT OF STRONGER STORM SYSTEMS INCREASES FOR THE GULF OF AK
TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

LUDWIG/JAM AUG 14