Gale Warning 473, NWS Anchorage, AK

089 
FZAK51 PAFC 092336
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101300-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 992 MB LOW 270 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WILL MOVE TO 260 NM SOUTH OF
CAPE SUCKLING LATE SUN MORNING AT 997 MB THEN TO NEAR HOMER LATE
SUN NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING. A
998 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 100 NM EAST OF SITKINAK LATE SUN MORNING
AND WEAKEN TO 1005 MB BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-101300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-101300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-101300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-101300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-101300-
PORT VALDEZ-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-101300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-101300-
VALDEZ ARM-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-101300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-101300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-101300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-101300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-101300-
CHINIAK BAY-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-101300-
MARMOT BAY-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-101300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-101300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-101300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-101300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
336 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
134 PM AKDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS SITUATED ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA
AND ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA. AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN
BERING SEA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84
HOURS. THERE ARE SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATIONS OF FRONTS
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...BUT WELL WITHIN "ACCEPTABLE" RANGE.
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE IS A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE FRONT OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST
WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL "SURGES" IN WIND AND PRECIPITATION AS VARIOUS EMBEDDED
SYSTEMS ARE PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL HIT THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL
BREAK APART LATE SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PUSHING EAST INTO
THE PANHANDLE. LESS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED INLAND WITH
UNFAVORABLE FLOW ALOFT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE "WRUNG
OUT" BY THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF AND SLOWLY BREAK APART AS ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST. SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA WITH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY OF
THE PENINSULA/GULF LOW...THOUGH DIMINISHING OVER TIME. A BRIEF
BREAK IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF RIDGING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON
SUNDAY.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING SLIDING EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION
AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA OF OKHOTSK LOW WILL RAPIDLY
PUSH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN BERING TONIGHT...INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SATURDAY MORNING THEN INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LOW ITSELF WILL REACH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP INTO A STRONG AND LARGE LOW...BECOMING
THE DOMINANT LOW IN THE AREA BY MONDAY AND TAKING UP ALL OF THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE AOR STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIAN LOW SLIDING EASTWARD EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW SOME BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE PARENT UPPER-LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF ADAK MON NIGHT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE
ALASKA PENINSULA LATE WED NIGHT/THU. AT A COMMENSURATE TIME...THE
GEM MOVES THE UPPER FEATURE TO THE FAR SW REACHES OF THE GULF OF
AK...SO THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS. THE LARGE
SCOPE (ALBEIT WEAKENING) OF THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH THE
INCREASINGLY CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS TIME
WEARS ON LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS CLOUDY AND WET OVER MOST
LOCALES...PARTICULARLY COASTAL AREAS.

AT PRESENT THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH IMPACT THE
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN PACIFIC WILL HAVE ON
THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANT ENERGY OF TYPHOON HALONG IMPACTING
JAPAN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING UP TOWARDS THE WESTERN SEA OF
OKHOTSK BY TUE AS A SHEARED UP EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TYPHOON
GENEVIEVE PASSING EAST OF WAKE ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
ALSO BE INCHING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 35N 165E AROUND TUE AND BE
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER. THE POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM THESE FEATURES
WOULD BE MANIFESTED IN THEIR RESIDUAL ENERGY GETTING CAUGHT UP
INTO THE JET STREAM AND FUSING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE INTO ANY
LINGERING OR DEVELOPING ALASKA STORM SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS NO
OMINOUS SIGN OF THIS OCCURRING...MODELS DO NOT TYPICALLY PERFORM
WELL IN THESE TYPES OF SCENARIOS AND THESE TROPICAL FEATURES ARE
OUT THERE AT PRESENT SO THEY BEAR WATCHING. FOR NOW WILL SAY THE
THREAT IS LOW FOR IMPACT TO FORECAST AREA...STIPULATED ALSO THAT
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS AVERAGE TO LOW.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 125 129 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

LUDWIG/JAM AUG 14