Gale Warning 461, NWS Anchorage, AK

143 
FZAK51 PAFC 041158
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050115-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
90 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND EARLY TUE MORNING AT THE SAME
STRENGTH. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT MOVES TO 150 NM
EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND EARLY WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-050115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-050115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-050115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-050115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-050115-
PORT VALDEZ-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-050115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-050115-
VALDEZ ARM-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-050115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-050115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-050115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-050115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-050115-
CHINIAK BAY-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-050115-
MARMOT BAY-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ138-050115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-050115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-050115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-050115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
358 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT SUN AUG 3 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CONTINUES TO INCH
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF...AND WITH IT HAS BROUGHT A RETURN TO
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP SWEPT THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
THIS MORNING WITH A FAIRLY BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN. DEEP MOISTURE IS
NOW DIMINISHING GIVING WAY TO MUCH MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM
THE COPPER BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND COOK INLET AREA. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS QUICKLY RACING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF AND LOOKS EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE FIRST...WITH
OVER-WATER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUING ALONG A LINE OF
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION ALONG 140W. A POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT IS
HELPING TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION ACROSS
VIRTUALLY ALL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ACROSS THE Y-K DELTA...WHERE DENSE FOG
AGAIN FORMED THIS MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY ALOFT IS
ALREADY PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY ROLLING OVER THE TOP OF THIS FOG
LAYER...AND IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR AT ALL THIS AFTERNOON THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. IN THE BERING SEA...STRATUS
AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN THE OVERALL PATTERN...THOUGH
CHANGE IS JUST BEGINNING TO PEAK INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ROARING UP
THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF. THE ECMWF WAS THE
FIRST TO DEPICT A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER CENTER DEVELOPING
TOMORROW...AND OVERNIGHT ALL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO GENERALLY
TREND THIS DIRECTION. WILL NOT GO AS WHOLE-HOG STRONG AS THE ECMWF
OR GEM-REGIONAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WINDS ABOVE WHERE
THE AMERICAN MODELS HAVE THEM. THIS WILL MEAN HOISTING A GALE
WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FRONT THAT ROLLED THROUGH
THIS MORNING IS NOW MOVING OFF TO THE WEST. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE
FILLED IN QUICKLY OVER THE COPPER BASIN AND INTERIOR KENAI
PENINSULA AS EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND HEATING HAVE
TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF STEEP ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. IT DOES STILL
SEEM LIKELY THAT SOME LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING IN THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND A SLACKING DOWN-INLET GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE
WINDS BLOWING THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM TO BEND INTO WEST ANCHORAGE
THIS EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING AS THE
DOWN-INLET GRADIENT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN.

CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY FALLING AS LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE VIGOROUS WAVING MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF ARE ALREADY
SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE BIORKA ISLAND
RADAR SHOWS PRECIP ALREADY SURGING TOWARD THE COAST...ALL
INDICATIONS THAT THIS NEXT ROUND OF RAIN IS MOVING AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE JUST LIKE THE ONE LAST NIGHT. HI- RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
TRYING TO DEPICT SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIP MOVING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
COOK INLET DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. SINCE THIS IS THE
SAME TYPE OF EVOLUTION AS HAPPENED THIS MORNING...A "RINSE AND
REPEAT" SCENARIO LOOKS LIKELY OVER BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND AREAS
OF SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
IN GENERAL THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE LARGE LOW EXPECTED TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE IN THE GULF FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...INCREASING MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE AND MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE LARGEST QUESTION MARK REMAINS
HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR AND ALLOW DIURNAL HEATING TO WORK IN
TANDEM WITH THIS MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. WITH DECENT SURFACE
HEATING SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDWEEK
ALONG THE KILBUCK AND AHKLUN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...LOW STRATUS IS
HAVING A VERY HARD TIME BURNING OFF TODAY...AND A THERMAL TROUGH
STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE DELTA WILL HELP TO KEEP PERIODS OF
STABLE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS PUSHING MORE OF THIS FOG/STRATUS
BACK ONSHORE. WILL KEEP THE GOING FORECAST AS-IS FOR NOW AND SEE
HOW THINGS PLAY OUT LATER THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST OVER MOST OF
BRISTOL BAY AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...SYNOPTIC CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND THUS LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH REGULAR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS STILL A GOOD BET FOR EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...MEANING FOG AND
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE BUT BEGIN TO SLOWLY TREND TOWARD IMPROVEMENT
BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST STARTING MONDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING AND ALEUTIANS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (THU AUG 7TH - SUN AUG 10TH)...

A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE IN FULL
SWING BY THURSDAY...WITH A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK CENTERED OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA FORCING A REINVIGORATED NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM
OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...UNDERCUTTING WHAT HAD BEEN A PERSISTENT
BERING RIDGE. OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA...MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
REMNANTS OF THE GULF LOW WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS...AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY...A
LARGE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAM IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND DUTCH
HARBOR...WITH A LARGE WARM FRONT TRACKING INTO THE GULF FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALL THE TRAITS OF A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL LOW...WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW SPREADING RAIN AND
CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY SEE
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE DRYING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST
(BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA) COASTLINES. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING
SOUTHCENTRAL...AND CONTINUED RAIN ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

DIXON/AHSENMACHER AUG 14