Gale Warning 457, NWS Anchorage, AK

622 
FZAK62 PAFC 061200
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-070115-
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN
BERING BY EARLY WED NIGHT. A 992 MB LOW NEAR 59N 172E WILL MOVE
TO NEAR 59N 174W AT 986 MB THU MORNING AND THEN MOVES TO NEAR 57N
170W AT 990 MB EARLY FRI MORNING. A 994 MB SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
NEAR 56N 157W EARLY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-070115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-070115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND THU...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-070115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND THU...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-070115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

541 
FZAK62 PAFC 062339
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
339 PM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071445-
339 PM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN
BERING TONIGHT. A 987 MB LOW NEAR 57N 174W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 59N
173W AT 986 MB THU AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR 56N 164W AT
990 MB BY FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
339 PM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ412-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
339 PM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW TO NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. AREAS OF
FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
339 PM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
339 PM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

471 
FZAK62 PAFC 071152
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
352 AM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080215-
352 AM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN
MAINLAND BY TONIGHT. A 987 MB LOW NEAR 60N 174W WILL MOVE TO NEAR
57N 169W AT 990 MB EARLY FRI MORNING AND THEN MOVES TO NEAR 54N
160W AT 990 MB EARLY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-080215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
352 AM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ412-080215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
352 AM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-080215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
352 AM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-080215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
352 AM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
149 PM AKDT TUE AUG 5 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND.
NUMEROUS WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND. AN AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE (IN BETWEEN UPPER WAVES) FROM COOK INLET NORTHEAST
ACROSS ANCHORAGE TO THE COPPER BASIN IS PRODUCING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT SURFACE HEATING TO ELIMINATE CAP
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TERRAIN. OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THERE IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE THERMAL
TROUGH OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AIDED BY A SHORT-WAVE ROTATING
DOWN FROM THE INTERIOR. MEANWHILE A MARINE LAYER HAS SETTLED IN
ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WITH SUCH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REGION THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
COMPARED WITH THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM A 100KT+ SUBTROPICAL JET IS DRIVING A TROUGH
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS AND TAPPING IN TO
ABUNDANT WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. A
WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN BERING WITH WARM
FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL BERING ALONG WITH STEADY RAIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING OF
WEAK FEATURES IN THE WAKE OF EXITING COLD CORE LOW OVER THE GULF.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE ENERGY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL HEAD BACK EAST AS BERING SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY.
NAM SOLUTION SEEMS OVERDONE WITH QPF IN COOK INLET/ANCHORAGE/MAT-
SU AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DO THINK THERE WILL BE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH WEAK
FORCING ALOFT. MEANWHILE...ALL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED HANDLING OF
BERING SYSTEM WITH A MORE AGGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE DRIVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING (AS IS EVIDENT IN CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY) WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA SOONER
AND PENETRATING FARTHER INLAND. MEANWHILE THE LOW QUICKLY WRAPS UP
AND STALLS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. ALTHOUGH EXACT LOW POSITIONS
VARY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH IN HANDLING OF FRONT TO BUY INTO
THIS FASTER SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AFTER DIURNAL CONVECTION DIES DOWN TONIGHT
EXPECT MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...SO THIS MAY PROVIDE FOR A MUCH GRIMMER DAY FROM THE
WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU ON WEDNESDAY. FORCING IS
WEAK...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. FASTER TIMING OF
THE FRONT BARRELING ACROSS THE BERING SEA MEANS RAIN WILL REACH
KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY AND SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE GULF COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS LIKE A CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE EVENT FOR
THE WESTERN KENAI/ANCHORAGE/MAT VALLEY AS THE FRONT SWINGS
NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF (BECOMING ORIENTED EAST-WEST) WITH RIDGE
BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF IT. IN FACT...THIS LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A
COASTAL EVENT WITH THE MAIN IMPACT INLAND BEING SOME CLOUDS AND
LOCALIZED GAP WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A STEADY STREAM OF WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHWESTWARD FROM INTERIOR ALASKA ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE UPSTREAM SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE ARRIVES AND CAUSES A REVERSAL OF FLOW...PUSHING
EVERYTHING EASTWARD. THE FRONT CROSSING THE BERING WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO DON'T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN CLOUDS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WITH A MORE AGGRESSIVE FRONTAL PROGRESSION
EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL
CERTAINLY BE MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WILL ALSO ALSO PRODUCE
SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RANGE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WITH FASTER FRONTAL PROGRESSION EXPECT LESS
RAIN THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT ALONG THE ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE GULF FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS VERY
PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS IN ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SAT AUG 9TH - TUE AUG 12TH)...

AN ACTIVE WAVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH A LARGE AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. EVENTUALLY THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...LEAVING SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA SUNDAY AND MONDAY....WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LARGE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC JET STREAM ACROSS
THE WESTERN BERING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND WILL TRACK INTO THE
EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SEB AUG 14