Gale Warning 452, NWS Anchorage, AK

735 
FZAK51 PAFC 111920 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST UP
TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120330-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A BROAD 1000 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE INLAND IN NORTHERN COOK INLET BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE
MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN THE NORTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-120330-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE COAST...SE
WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 25 KT IN
THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-120330-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-120330-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-120330-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-120330-
PORT VALDEZ-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-120330-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-120330-
VALDEZ ARM-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-120330-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-120330-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-120330-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ132-120330-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-120330-
CHINIAK BAY-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-120330-
MARMOT BAY-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-120330-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-120330-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-120330-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-120330-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1120 AM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

093 
FZAK51 PAFC 112257
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121200-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH
THE EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THE NORTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-121200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT E 30 KT ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-121200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-121200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. PATCHY MORNING FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-121200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-121200-
PORT VALDEZ-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. PATCHY MORNING FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-121200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-121200-
VALDEZ ARM-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-121200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-121200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-121200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ132-121200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ136-121200-
CHINIAK BAY-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ137-121200-
MARMOT BAY-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-121200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-121200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-121200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-121200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
257 PM AKDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
233 PM AKDT THU JUL 10 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH A
SPRAWLING AND COMPLEX UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING.
THIS SETS MAINLAND UP IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN
ALASKA. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
CENTER...THOUGH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES ARE DOMINATING THE WEATHER
AROUND THE REGION TODAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND A GALE-FORCE BARRIER JET TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. THIS PATTERN IS SO MOISTURE-LADEN THAT EVEN THE
USUAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS LIKE ANCHORAGE ARE SEEING RAIN...THOUGH NOT
NEARLY AS MUCH AS COASTAL SITES. THE SECOND SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.
THIS SECOND FEATURE IS RAPIDLY CATCHING UP TO THE FIRST...AND THE
NET EFFECT WILL BE A BRIEF PLATEAU OR WEAK LULL IN WINDS AND RAIN
ALONG THE COAST BEFORE RE-INTENSIFICATION THIS EVENING. PERIODS
OF RAIN ARE ALSO ROTATING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THOUGH WINDS
ARE MUCH WEAKER AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN WELL TO
THE EAST. MEANWHILE...NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE BERING SEA. CLOUDINESS IS VERY WIDESPREAD BUT
PRECIPITATION REMAINS ISOLATED AND SHOWER IN NATURE AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...AND ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
DETAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CURRENT STORM. THERE HAD BEEN
SOME ISSUE ABOUT WHETHER A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW CENTER WOULD FORM
UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY UPPER SHORTWAVE...WITH SMALL
BUT SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE STRENGTH OF COOK INLET WINDS
AND THE BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
THE SOLUTION FIRST ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF WILL BE THE MOST
CORRECT...WITH ONLY A VERY BRIEF LULL IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
BARRIER JET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND WEAKER COOK INLET WINDS
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN RDPS TRY TO KEEP
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AROUND COOK INLET TOMORROW DURING THE
DAY...KEEPING FLOW DOWN-INLET AND GUSTY WINDS OUT OF ANCHORAGE.
THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT MATCH CONCEPTUAL MODEL AND HISTORICAL
BEHAVIOR...AND WILL THUS ELECT TO STICK CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM
SOLUTION THAT DOES BRING SOME WINDS INTO ANCHORAGE BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WINDS AND RAIN IS
QUICKLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER FLOW
REMAINING MORE SOUTHERLY (RATHER THAN SOUTHEASTERLY) AND THE
MOISTURE-LADEN NATURE OF THIS STORM (OVER 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER ON THE ANCHORAGE MORNING SOUNDING) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
RAIN FALLING EVEN IN MOST OF THE USUAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS ON THE LEE
SIDES OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON WHEN (OR IF) THE TURNAGAIN
ARM WINDS SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF ANCHORAGE TOMORROW. THE FORECAST
REASONING IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS LIKELY
TO BEGIN AFFECTING SOUTH AND WEST ANCHORAGE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WHILE THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE SEVERE OR DAMAGING...THEY
WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY GUSTY AND MAY LINGER UNTIL THE DAYTIME ON
SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WHILE THE REGION WILL STAY OUT OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN
BERING SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO THE PACIFIC. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN INDIVIDUAL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAIN BANDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE
UPPER LOW LINGERS. CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY BE SHOWERY IN NATURE
WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING...DROPPING WINDS EVEN
MORE BUT LIKELY LEADING INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD MARINE
FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS ARE CURRENTLY TURNING STRONGLY
SOUTH/DOWN-INLET AND AS A RESULT WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE STAYING
OUT OF THE ANCHORAGE AREA. THIS WILL CHANGE TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE CORE OF
TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS BEGIN TO BEND MORE NORTHERLY. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MULTI-HOUR PERIOD SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING WHERE WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LATER FRIDAY MORNING GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REACH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND
END THE WIND SHEAR THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SUN JULY 13 - WED JULY 16)...

THE REMNANTS OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING
SOUTHERN ALASKA SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THEN SLOWLY RISE
TOWARDS MIDWEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MAINLAND. THE
BERING SEA WILL ALSO REMAIN QUIET WEATHER WISE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE A CONTINUATION OF TYPICAL SEA STRATUS AND FOG.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 119
         GALE 125 129
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

AMD/JA JUL 14