Gale Warning 448, NWS Anchorage, AK

985 
FZAK61 PAFC 192343
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
343 PM AKDT SAT JUL 19 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-201345-
343 PM AKDT SAT JUL 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1005 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 60N 148W THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE
TO NEAR 53N 134W AT 1009 MB BY MON AFTERNOON.


$$

PKZ351-201345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
343 PM AKDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ352-201345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
343 PM AKDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

478 
FZAK61 PAFC 201151
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
351 AM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-210145-
351 AM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 60N 148W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 53N 134W AT 1008 MB
BY MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GULF ON
MON AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST THROUGH TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-210145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
351 AM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ352-210145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
351 AM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
155 PM AKDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST. THERE
ARE TWO SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW THAT WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE FIRST EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST
COAST OF ALASKA THEN BENDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING
SEA...JUST NORTH OF AND PARALLEL TO THE ALEUTIANS. THE OTHER
SHORT-WAVE IS FORMING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. THERE IS A RIDGE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AHEAD OF THE FIRST TROUGH. THERE IS A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS. EVEN
THE NAM AGREES WELL WITH THE OTHER MODELS THROUGH 60 HOURS...THEN
BEGINS TO DIVERGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA AFTER THAT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF ALASKA WILL PUSH THE POLAR JET
SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE FIRST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE
COOK INLET AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PUSHING THROUGH
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN LATER IN THE DAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM (CURRENTLY OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA) WILL RACE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING MORE RAIN INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SATURDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. LATER
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE BERING RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
ALASKA...USHERING IN A DRY MONDAY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. A BRIEF BREAK EARLY SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT
SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO PROTECT THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SATURDAY
NIGHT...INTO THE EASTERN BERING SUNDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE PUSHING THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS/ALASKA
PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POLAR JET WILL PUSH
A COUPLE OF FRONTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING THROUGH MONDAY WHICH
WILL BRING PERIODIC WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THAT AREA. ON
SUNDAY A LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTH AND
MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA ON MONDAY...PUSHING INTO THE AREA VACATED
BY THE DEPARTING RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A SERIES OF
UPPER LOWS THAT WILL APPROACH THE ALASKAN MAINLAND FROM THE WEST
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER
THE ARCTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE
TO AROUND OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE...A STOUT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING
BY LATE TUESDAY AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO INFLUENCE
THE MAINLAND BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

LUDWIG/CB JUL 14