Gale Warning 445, NWS Anchorage, AK

651 
FZAK52 PAFC 251146 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260115-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 991 MB LOW 280 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE 310 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AT 989 MB THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BERING THIS MORNING AND EXPAND TO THE REST OF
THE BERING BY THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-260115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ155-260115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARDS MORNING.
SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-260115-
BRISTOL BAY-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-260115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT TOWARDS MORNING.
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-260115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-260115-
UNALASKA BAY-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-260115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ173-260115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-260115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ175-260115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-260115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ177-260115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ178-260115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-260115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-260115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-260115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-260115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
346 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

016 
FZAK52 PAFC 252341
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-261245-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A 1004 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
TO 415 NM NORTH OF ATTU BY LATE FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ150-261245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ155-261245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ160-261245-
BRISTOL BAY-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-261245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF COLD BAY. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-261245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-261245-
UNALASKA BAY-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-261245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ173-261245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ174-261245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ175-261245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-261245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-261245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-261245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-261245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-261245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-261245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-261245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
341 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
152 PM AKDT TUE JUN 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE GULF...WITH
CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
GULF OF ALASKA. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY
AROUND THE LOW CENTER ITSELF...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY THINNED OUT OVER THE WESTERN KENAI
AND ANCHORAGE AREAS...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS QUICKLY
DEVELOPING IN CLEAR AREAS. FURTHER WEST...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA ARE ALSO GIVING WAY TO CONVECTIVE
CLOUDINESS. DENSE FOG SURGED INLAND FROM THE COAST AGAIN OVERNIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE DELTA...AND IS NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF ONCE AGAIN RETREATING IN THE FACE OF SOLAR HEATING.
OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...MARINE FOG/STRATUS REMAIN VERY
WIDESPREAD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING HANGING TOUGH. A WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS SO WEAK IT IS HAVING DIFFICULTY
EVEN DISRUPTING THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS ALREADY IN PLACE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE
THE BIG PLAYER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA
(AND SPECIFICALLY SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA) IN THE COMING DAYS. ALL
MODELS DEPICT THIS WAVE RACING NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND PINWHEELING
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RESIDUAL UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO VIRTUALLY ALL POINTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS. SOME
IMPORTANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE TO PRESENT A SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONTENTION
INVOLVING HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
PULLS THE GULF UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL CONTROL THE MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED SHIELD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE PULLING THIS
FEATURE WESTWARD...PULLING THE STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE
AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE ECMWF/GEMGLB AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE 18Z NAM SEND MUCH OF THIS ENERGY UP TO THE BROOKS
RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING THINGS MOSTLY DRY WEST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE BUT POTENTIALLY LINGERING A DEFORMATION BAND AND MORE
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT THE GFS IS BEING CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER...AND WILL OPT TO
STICK WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT (AND CLOSER TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST) ECMWF-BASED SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE GIVING WAY TO SUNNY BREAKS AND SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...WITH
MORNING CLOUDINESS KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BE FROM PALMER NORTHWARD...WHERE THE LINGERING THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE THE STRONGEST. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ALL EYES TURN TO
ANOTHER STRONG EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. WITH MODELS
TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS PROGRESSION ALL AREAS INCLUDING
ANCHORAGE AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY ARE NOW EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STEADY MODERATE RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE
ACTION BEGINS FIRST OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN SPREADING QUICKLY TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING. ANCHORAGE WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN BEGIN BY MIDDAY ALONG
WITH THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND FINALLY THE KENAI PENINSULA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MAINLAND WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE HALF INCH
TO ONE INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UPWARD OF 2
INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SUNSHINE AND A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH CURVING DOWN FROM
INTERIOR ALASKA ARE A RECIPE FOR CONVECTION TODAY OVER INLAND
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MEANWHILE...EXTENSIVE MORNING
FOG/STRATUS AND CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL IRONICALLY KEEP THE
COASTLINES MOSTLY DRY. CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE...WITH A STRENGTHENING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BOLTS OF LIGHTNING EACH OF THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SO WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST
THE STEADY RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
WOULD KEEP THIS RAIN MAINLY UP ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT
INTERESTED PARTIES IN THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND EVEN FAR
NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES. GENERALLY INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL MAKE OVERNIGHT COASTAL FOG LESS OF A
PROBLEM THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME LOCALIZED ISSUES. BY THURSDAY OVERALL FLOW
BECOMES ONSHORE AND FOG WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE
AGAIN.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF ADAK WILL HAVE OVERALL MINIMAL
IMPACTS ON THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND STAYS
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...AND
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER BENIGN CONDITIONS. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL REMAIN EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF MARINE
FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
UNCERTAINTY REIGNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GUIDANCE VARIES
WILDLY WITH HOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA...TRACKS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SOLUTIONS VARY FROM NORTHWARD
ALONG THE ALASKA/CANADA BORDER NORTHWARD TO TOWARD THE SEWARD
PENINSULA. DESPITE THOSE MAJOR DIFFERENCES...THE TWO MAJOR PLAYERS
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOK TO BE A LINGERING NORTHEAST PACIFIC
LOW SETTING UP SHOP NEAR THE PANHANDLE AND TROUGHING NEAR THE
CHUKCHI PENINSULA. RIDGING LOOKS TO OCCUPY THE YUKON/NW TERRITORY
REGION AS WELL AS THE BERING SEA. THAT SOLUTION LEAVES MUCH OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MAINLAND UNDER SLACK FLOW WITH THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...SOME
DISTURBANCES COULD PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WEAKER NW FLOW WHICH
WOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. GENERALLY LOOK FOR NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

AMD/ML JUN 14