Gale Warning 438, NWS Anchorage, AK

357 
FZAK51 PAFC 151103
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160000-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SITKINAK AT 999 MB MON AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN
TO 985 MB AS IT MOVES TO 140 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD EARLY TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-160000-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-160000-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-160000-
RESURRECTION BAY-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-160000-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-160000-
PORT VALDEZ-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-160000-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-160000-
VALDEZ ARM-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-160000-
PASSAGE CANAL-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-160000-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-160000-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-160000-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-160000-
CHINIAK BAY-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-160000-
MARMOT BAY-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-160000-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-160000-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-160000-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-160000-
KACHEMAK BAY-
303 AM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
153 PM AKDT SAT JUN 14 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS MORNING WAS MOVING
SW ACROSS THE NORTH GULF/ANCHORAGE BOWL/MATSU. LIGHT RAIN WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. CLOUD BREAKS WERE OCCURRING OVER
THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH SHOWERS GENERALLY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS WAVE. SHOWERS WERE ALSO FORMING OVER THE KENAI
PEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. BRISK WEST WINDS WERE EVIDENT NEAR
WHITTIER WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WHICH MOVED
INTO THE GULF THIS MORNING.

FURTHER WEST...
BROAD W TO NW FLOW WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF SW ALASKA. THE
MARINE LAYER WORKED INTO ALONG THE DELTA COAST BRINGING LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR AREAS. A STACKED LOW JUST
NORTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WAS DROPPING SOUTH AND PRODUCING
GUSTY SW WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND GUSTY NW WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WERE
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL TROUGH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LONG WAVE OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST AND SLOWER SOLUTION
WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST AND A LITTLE WEAKER. THE TREND IN
THESE TWO MODELS HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE CENTER FURTHER WEST AND
DEEPEN IT. BOTH MODELS SHOW DECENT UPPER JET SUPPORT THOUGH THE
GFS DOES SHOW A MORE CONCENTRATED VORTICITY MAXIMA NEAR THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE CENTER. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT THE GFS MAY BE
A LITTLE TOO DEEP AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE FAST. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION BUT NOT AS DEEP.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE EASTERLY WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SW ACROSS THE COOK INLET AREA
THIS EVENING. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND A FEW MINOR WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY THIS EVENING AS
WITH CLEARING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE SUN AS THE
INTERIOR THERMAL TROUGH INTENSIFIES AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
WARMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN MON
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINING
AREAS THROUGH MON.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA... ONE LAST
A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA THAT WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE ON THE
DECLINE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALASKA AND
ALEUTIAN RANGES. BY SUNDAY...MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE DRY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE
ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE DELTA IS THE OTHER EXCEPTION AS THE MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE
WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS... A VERTICALLY STACKED COLD CORE
LOW WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD ADAK TONIGHT. THE
PHASING OF THE BERING SEA TROUGH WITH THEN NORTH PACIFIC PORTION
WILL CREATE A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW
AND PUSH TOWARD THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND UNALASKA BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND GRADUALLY
SLIDE EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

LONG TERM FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. GLOBAL CONSENSUS HAS A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING CYCLONE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE GULF COAST
BRINGING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST AND
A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING INLAND. A COOL AND WET
PERIOD WILL PERSIST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO
IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WEEK RIDGE DEVELOPS IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

OUT WEST...AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF COME THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE BERING SEA...A
PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN WILL BE SEEN WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
AREA. A LOW COMING OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN WILL BEGIN TO BRING
RAINFALL TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

RMC JUN 14