Gale Warning 431, NWS Anchorage, AK

384 
FZAK61 PAFC 262344
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 PM AKDT THU JUN 26 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-271500-
344 PM AKDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 991 MB LOW NEAR 51N 140W WILL MOVE TO 53N 135W AND WEAKEN TO
1003 MB SAT AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
DISSIPATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-271500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
344 PM AKDT THU JUN 26 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ352-271500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
344 PM AKDT THU JUN 26 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT W OF 150W. SEAS
8 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
147 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA...AND IS IN
THE PROCESS OF MOVING INLAND NEAR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A
SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW HAS USHERED WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AS WELL AS THE POPULATION CENTERS AROUND UPPER COOK INLET.
FURTHER WEST...CLEAR SKIES AND A SURGING THERMAL TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ARE ALREADY LEADING TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL LIKELY BECOME THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA...WHERE WEAK FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS CONTINUE TO FOSTER WIDESPREAD MARINE FOG/STRATUS. A
WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THAT PASSED NEAR BUT SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS IS PULLING AWAY INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WITH GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS NOW CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF SHELIKOF STRAIT
AND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO COME INTO GENERALLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE UPPER-LEVEL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR OF
THE STATE. THE GFS HAS JOINED THE ECMWF/GEMGLB SOLUTION IN DRIVING
MOST OF THE ENERGY NORTH TOWARD THE BROOKS RANGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION BAND TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND UPPER COOK INLET. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE BEING MADE TO THE FORECAST TODAY AS INHERITED FORECAST IS
LARGELY ON TRACK. WILL FINE-TUNE RAINFALL AMOUNTS (GENERALLY
REVISED UPWARD) AND KEEP STEADY RAIN FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS NOW UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND IN THE NORTHERN SUSITNA
VALLEY...TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHWEST COPPER RIVER BASIN.
NOT ONLY WILL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS
AREA...BUT A LOW-LEVEL JET SURGING NORTHWARD UP COOK INLET WILL
INTERACT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN TO BOOST RAINFALL RATES EVEN MORE. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE KENAI PENINSULA SHOULD RECEIVE ONLY A GLANCING BLOW
FROM THIS RAIN EVENT AS MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYS NORTHWARD.
FURTHER SOUTH...FLOW HAS BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND
HAS USHERED IN LOW CLOUDINESS TO GULF SIDE OF THE ISLAND. THINK
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP MOST OF KODIAK ISLAND DRY...SO INCREASED
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
TEMPERATURE HAVE WARMED QUICKLY INTO THE 70S TODAY AT INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND HAS LED TO APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY
ZONE. WITH THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW INTO INTERIOR
ALASKA...THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THE STEADY RAIN WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES TOMORROW...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...SOME MARINE FOG/STRATUS MAY CREEP NORTHWARD
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
WITH MOST OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER STAYING ACROSS THE
MAINLAND...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING WILL KEEP
FOG/STRATUS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE BERING THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PATTERN BUT STILL STRUGGLES WITH A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN SIBERIA. GUIDANCE HAS RANGED FROM
TAKING THE ENERGY SOUTH TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW COMPLEX...TO KEEPING THE ENERGY
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO INCORPORATE A SPLITTING OF THE ENERGY BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES. WHAT THIS MEANS IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE AND THE BERING STRAIT TROUGH WILL
CONTROL MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WITH RIDGING POKING IN ON EITHER SIDE
FROM THE YUKON AND THE BERING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION THREAT BEING DIURNAL SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 145.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

AMD/MTL JUN 14