Gale Warning 424, NWS Anchorage, AK

824 
FZAK52 PAFC 312248
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011215-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA TODAY AND
SPREAD TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-011215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 10 FT
EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR THE COAST. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR THE COAST.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-011215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-011215-
BRISTOL BAY-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-011215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT W 15 KT E OF PORT 
MOLLER. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-011215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-011215-
UNALASKA BAY-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-011215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-011215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-011215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-011215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-011215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-011215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-011215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ179-011215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-011215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-011215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-011215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
248 PM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
456 AM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW WITHIN IT OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA IS MOVING EASTWARD AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE BERING SEA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS A LARGE LOW OVER THE
INTERIOR THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BERING SEA. THERE HAS BEEN
AN AREA OF DOWNSLOPING OVER THE COOK INLET REGION THAT HAS KEPT
MUCH OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...ANCHORAGE BOWL...AND
MATANUSKA VALLEY DRY OVERNIGHT AS STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND OTHER EAST-WEST ORIENTED MOUNTAIN GAPS.
AS A FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...RAIN IS
BEGINNING TO FILL IN OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE
ESPECIALLY AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE GEM REGIONAL AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT AND BOTH HAVE REASONABLE
SOLUTIONS...SO THEY ARE THE PREFERRED MODELS ONCE AGAIN. THE GFS
IS ALSO BEING UTILIZED FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD...BRINGING GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN BEHIND IT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
THROUGH COOK INLET...ALTHOUGH OTHER PLACES THAT FAVOR SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND WILL SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF STEADY RAINFALL RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY. SNOW IS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER ABOUT 2500 FT ELEVATION THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY
AFFECTING RECREATION AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
A FEW DAYS...BUT WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND SUNDAY.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL. THERE
WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING SEA
AND ALEUTIANS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRIBILOFS COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE BERING
SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER MOST OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
WITH IT DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
LATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO AT LEAST THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&
AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 129 138 139 141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SCHRECK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
753 AM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

AKZ101-311800-
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
753 AM AKDT SAT MAY 31 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE UPPER HILLSIDE THIS MORNING...

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
REGION OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN THE FREEZING LEVELS DROPPING TO
AROUND 1500 FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM HAS CHANGED
TO SNOW ALONG THE UPPER HILLSIDE AND HAS ALREADY DEPOSITED OVER AN
INCH OF SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET. SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE UPPER HILLSIDE AND WE EXPECT A TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF AROUND 3 INCHES. THE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST
LONG AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAPIDLY MELT IT THIS AFTERNOON.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE DRIVING ALONG THE
UPPER HILLSIDE DUE TO THE SLICK WET CONDITIONS.