Gale Warning 417, NWS Anchorage, AK

931 
FZAK51 PAFC 292345
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301215-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF MOVES TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT THEN INLAND FRIDAY. A 1000 MB LOW 200 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY TONIGHT MOVES TO COOK INLET AT 998 MB FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN NORTH INLAND SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ119-301215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-301215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-301215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-301215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-301215-
PORT VALDEZ-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E WIND 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-301215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-301215-
VALDEZ ARM-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-301215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-301215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-301215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-301215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ136-301215-
CHINIAK BAY-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ137-301215-
MARMOT BAY-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-301215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-301215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-301215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SMOKE...RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-301215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
526 AM AKDT THU MAY 29 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC...WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN MAINLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONT IS SWINGING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS
MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER FRONT STRETCHES FROM A LOW NEAR THE
YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. RAIN IS FALLING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE COOK INLET REGION. THERE ARE GUSTY WINDS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE GAPS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN OUTLIER FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS SOME DISCREPANCIES AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE BERING SEA. THE GEM-REGIONAL IS THE MODEL
OF CHOICE FOR THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE A
BLEND OF MODELS IS AGAIN BEING USED FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THIS MORNING WILL BRING MORE
RAIN TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. WITH THE
NEXT FRONT ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. LOCATIONS ABOVE 2500 TO 3000 FT COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN FRIDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS WELL...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTH
ANCHORAGE AND THE HILLSIDE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
AS THE LOW REMAINS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING A POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MORE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. THE
LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER
SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. DRIER CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
REMAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SCHRECK