Gale Warning 408, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

May 6, 2014, 2:56 PM AKDT (22:56 UTC)

Expired

May 7, 2014, 3:30 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

498 
FZAK51 PAFC 062256
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071130-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW 260 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 300 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SITKA AT 1003 MB THU AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-071130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ120-071130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-071130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-071130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-071130-
PORT VALDEZ-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-071130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-071130-
VALDEZ ARM-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-071130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-071130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-071130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ132-071130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ136-071130-
CHINIAK BAY-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ137-071130-
MARMOT BAY-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-071130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-071130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-071130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-071130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
256 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at May 6, 1:40 PM AKDT, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
140 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TODAY HAS A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING UP THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA INTO THE YUKON AND A LARGE
LOW IN THE ARCTIC WITH A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF IT OVER
MOST OF THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THERE IS A SECONDARY
CENTER ALONG THIS TROUGH SOUTH OF KODIAK THAT IS BEGINNING TO CUT
OFF INTO A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM
THE WEST TODAY. THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO CREATE SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE MIX.
FARTHER WEST THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS PUSHING
INTO THE ARCTIC LOW WITH THE RESULT BEING A FLATTENED RIDGE OVER
THE BERING SEA REGION PRODUCING ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IN THAT
REGION. AT THE SURFACE THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK IS HEADING EASTWARD
BUT THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS MOVING ON SHORE ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS INCREASING WIND AND RAIN
FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WHILE PULLING IN NORTHWEST FLOW
TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL AMPLIFY IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA TOMORROW AND
BEGIN TO HAVE A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPACT ON THE WEATHER AS IT DOES.
&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST FEW
DAYS. THE NAM HAS BEEN GOOD OVER MAINLAND PARTS OF THE STATE WITH
HIGHER DETAIL BUT IS THE MODEL THAT IS STRUGGLING WITH THE COMPLEX
LOW THAT WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY WELL SO
THEY CAN BE USED IN THAT AREA WHERE THEN NAM APPEARS TO BE
STRUGGLING.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RAIN...WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN HAS BEEN THE STORY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN FROM THE DUE SOUTH INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST
WHICH IS WHY THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH DOWNSLOPING TO CUT OFF THE
RAINFALL ON LEEWARD SIDES OF THE KENAI THROUGH TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE THERE
IS DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CHUGACH AND WRANGELL MOUNTAINS. WHILE THERE
ARE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COPPER RIVER AND ONLY LIMITED RAINFALL
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES UP
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DOWN EVEN IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL WILL TAPER OFF THE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA BEINGS TO ASSERT
ITSELF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN SOUTHCENTRAL BRINGING CLEARING SKIES
AND DRIER WEATHER AGAIN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA IS BRINGING IN
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND IT. HOWEVER THIS STABLE AIR IS
ALSO BRINGING STRATUS FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THIS AREA. THIS
WILL PROBABLY PERSIST OVER A GOOD PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR UP TOMORROW DURING THE DAY. THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION IS TRAPPED UNDER VERY MOIST AIR A JUST ENOUGH LIFTING TO
BRING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW. &&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AFTER THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES TO
A LARGE PORTION OF MAINLAND ALASKA AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
LIKELY RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ARE UNLIKELY
TO SET RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKE LAST WEEK.
&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

MAY 14

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2014Every gale warning in 2014

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.