Gale Warning 398, NWS Anchorage, AK

309 
FZAK51 PAFC 262319
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271200-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 981 MB LOW 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO
1001 MB 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK MON AFTERNOON. A WEATHER
FRONT STALLED ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE AND
DISSIPATE SUN EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-271200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-271200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-271200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-271200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-271200-
PORT VALDEZ-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-271200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-271200-
VALDEZ ARM-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-271200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-271200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-271200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-271200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-271200-
CHINIAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-271200-
MARMOT BAY-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-271200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 30 KT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-271200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-271200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ141-271200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
417 PM AKDT FRI APR 25 2014

.UPDATE...

THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HAS BEEN
INSUFFICIENT TO TEMPER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM DROPPING TO
CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. HAVE ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 10 PM LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
THERE WILL BE SOME RECOVERY OF THE LOW HUMIDITY DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME DIMINISHING OF THE
WINDS...BUT THESE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN EARNEST
MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED.

FURTHER WEST...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ARE
ALSO SEEING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH BRISK WINDS. RED FLAG
WARNING ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

UPDATE...JAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM AKDT FRI APR 25 2014/

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A JET STREAM IN EXCESS OF 165 KT AT 250 MB IS RUNNING FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS JET
HAS BEEN LOCATED IN A GOOD POSITION OT STRENGTHEN TO MID 970S MB
LOW THAT IS NEAR SAND POINT. AS THIS JET EDGES SOUTHWARD IT WILL
CUT OFF ENERGY FEEDING INTO THIS LOW AND THE LOW WILL END UP
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TOMORROW WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A FRONT AHEAD OF THIS LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BRINGING RAIN TO KODIAK
ISLAND AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF COAST. &&

MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL SOLUTIONS
POINT TO THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA MOVING EASTWARD AND
THEN BECOMING STATIONARY SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND ON SATURDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN THERE AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN THE
BERING SEA REGION AS THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE IN THE STRUCTURE
AND MOVEMENT OF THE COMPLEX LOW IN THAT AREA. THIS IS EXACERBATED
BY THE SAME ISSUE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
LOW THAT WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
WILL EXTEND OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE
STATE.

SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE FRONT ON THE GULF IDS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
GULF COAST REGION WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG IT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DOWNSLOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW.
BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN THE GULF AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL HAVE
BOTH WEAKENED ENOUGH TO END ANY PRECIPITATION INLAND AND REDUCE IT
TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS ARE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM
AND THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR SAND POINT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO THE AKPEN AND SOUTHERN
BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. DOWNSLOPING WILL BE LIMIT
RAINFALL ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND AKPEN TO JUST
PASSING SHOWERS. FURTHER TO THE WEST...THERE WILL BE SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS
EVENING THAN WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST GULF LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED MOSTLY TO COLD AIR ADVECTION RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
BERING SEA COAST AS THE WINDS SWING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. THE
AREA WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR ON SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING ONCE
AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
CONDITIONS ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE STARTING AS RIDGING STARTS TO SLOWLY BUILD
IN. THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN WILL REMAIN UNDER A RISK FOR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
UNTIL THE RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE BERING ON SUNDAY. THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL THE FRONT FROM A LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL FORM
OVER EASTERN RUSSIA ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME A SEMI PERMANENT TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
SETUP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND WITH WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE EAST MAINLAND. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND...BUT A FEW CLOUDY
AND RAINY PERIODS TO THE EAST CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE WEAK
NATURE OF THE MAINLAND RIDGE.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130-139 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING...111 152

&&

APR 14