Gale Warning 397, NWS Anchorage, AK

861 
FZAK52 PAFC 261150 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTEDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

CORRECTED 165

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-270030-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 MB LOW 120 NM E OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE TO 270 NM SE OF SAND
POINT AT 994 MB EARLY MON MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SAT AFTERNOON...THEN TRACKS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY LATE SUN EVENING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SAT EVENING... THEN TRACK TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUN EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-270030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS EXCEPT E WIND 25 KT N OF
CHIRIKOF ISLAND IN THE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-270030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NW 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NW 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-270030-
BRISTOL BAY-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-270030-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-270030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-270030-
UNALASKA BAY-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-270030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-270030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-270030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-270030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-270030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-270030-
ADAK TO KISKA-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-270030-
KISKA TO ATTU-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-270030-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ180-270030-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT N OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS 7
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-270030-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-270030-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
350 AM AKDT SAT APR 26 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
151 PM AKDT FRI APR 25 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A JET STREAM IN EXCESS OF 165 KT AT 250 MB IS RUNNING FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS JET
HAS BEEN LOCATED IN A GOOD POSITION OT STRENGTHEN TO MID 970S MB
LOW THAT IS NEAR SAND POINT. AS THIS JET EDGES SOUTHWARD IT WILL
CUT OFF ENERGY FEEDING INTO THIS LOW AND THE LOW WILL END UP
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TOMORROW WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A FRONT AHEAD OF THIS LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BRINGING RAIN TO KODIAK
ISLAND AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF COAST. &&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL SOLUTIONS
POINT TO THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA MOVING EASTWARD AND
THEN BECOMING STATIONARY SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND ON SATURDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN THERE AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN THE
BERING SEA REGION AS THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE IN THE STRUCTURE
AND MOVEMENT OF THE COMPLEX LOW IN THAT AREA. THIS IS EXACERBATED
BY THE SAME ISSUE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
LOW THAT WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
WILL EXTEND OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE
STATE.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE FRONT ON THE GULF IDS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
GULF COAST REGION WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG IT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DOWNSLOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW.
BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN THE GULF AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL HAVE
BOTH WEAKENED ENOUGH TO END ANY PRECIPITATION INLAND AND REDUCE IT
TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS ARE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM
AND THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR SAND POINT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO THE AKPEN AND SOUTHERN
BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. DOWNSLOPING WILL BE LIMIT
RAINFALL ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND AKPEN TO JUST
PASSING SHOWERS. FURTHER TO THE WEST...THERE WILL BE SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS
EVENING THAN WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST GULF LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED MOSTLY TO COLD AIR ADVECTION RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
BERING SEA COAST AS THE WINDS SWING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. THE
AREA WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR ON SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING ONCE
AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
CONDITIONS ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE STARTING AS RIDGING STARTS TO SLOWLY BUILD
IN. THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN WILL REMAIN UNDER A RISK FOR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
UNTIL THE RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE BERING ON SUNDAY. THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL THE FRONT FROM A LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&
LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL FORM
OVER EASTERN RUSSIA ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME A SEMI PERMANENT TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
SETUP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND WITH WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE EAST MAINLAND. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND...BUT A FEW CLOUDY
AND RAINY PERIODS TO THE EAST CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE WEAK
NATURE OF THE MAINLAND RIDGE.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130-139 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

APR 14