Gale Warning 393, NWS Anchorage, AK

837 
FZAK51 PAFC 242300
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251145-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 977 MB LOW NEAR SCAM ISLAND WILL BE A 983 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH
OF KODIAK SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF FRI MORNING AND THEN MOVE TO THE
EASTERN GULF BY SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-251145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-251145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-251145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-251145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-251145-
PORT VALDEZ-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-251145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-251145-
VALDEZ ARM-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-251145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-251145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-251145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-251145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E
WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-251145-
CHINIAK BAY-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-251145-
MARMOT BAY-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-251145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-251145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-251145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-251145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
153 PM AKDT WED APR 23 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE STATE HAS BEGUN TO PUSH NORTHWESTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS PRODUCING
EASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY. THERE
ARE A COUPLE OF EASTERLY WAVES...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST...THAT ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THESE WAVES
HAVE CAUSED SOME OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS.
THE JET STREAM IS RUNNING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND
IS PROVIDING THE SOURCE FOR A STRENGTHENING LOW SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW THERE TO RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN AND ABSORB THE WEAKENING LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
TOMORROW AS THAT LOW DOES NOT HAVE ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ONE ITEM THEY ALL SEEM TO BE CATCHING
UP ON IS THE SPEED AT WHICH THE FIRST EASTERLY WAVE THAT MOVED
THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TRAVELED THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE HAS
CROSSED THE ALASKA RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND IS MOVING FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED BY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE SECOND EASTERLY WAVE IS
OVER NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADED
TO THE WEST. THE MODELS MAY HAVE TRIED TO MIX THESE WAVES INTO ONE
PREVIOUSLY AS NEITHER IS VERY STRONG.

THE MODELS DO DIVERGE A BIT STARING EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THERE
STILL LOOKS TO BE A GENERAL PATTERN EMERGING THAT WE CAN WORK
WITH.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE ATMOSPHERE IS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS BEING PRODUCED AS THE EASTERLY WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION HAS NOT BEEN AS
WIDESPREAD AS RADAR INDICATES HOWEVER AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS FAIRLY DRY CAUSING A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE SHOWERS TO
EVAPORATE INTO VIRGA.
A FRONT IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA IS PUMPING A BIT OF
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF KODIAK ISLAND. THE NORTHERN
PORTION INCLUDING THE CITY OF KODIAK IS OUT OF THE MAIN PUSH OF
MOISTURE BUT WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE ISLAND THIS EVENING AS THE LATEST
SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A LOW THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT IS
EDGING TO THE NORTHWEST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THERE IS SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND ANOTHER
REGION OF CLOUDS SOUTH OF KING SALMON. IN BETWEEN THERE ARE SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN AS THE DAYTIME HEATING
PROVIDES LOW LEVEL LIFT.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA IS
WEAKENING BUT IS STILL IMPACTING THE WEATHER THERE. THE
EASTERN BERING SEA HAS SOME CLOUDS NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG A
DISSIPATING FRONT BUT ALSO HAS A LARGE AREA OF SUNNY SKIES AS
WELL. RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW THERE.
&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ADDED TO THE FORECAST AFTER THIS LOW
DISSIPATES AS THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO COME TO A COMMON
SOLUTION AS TO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO INVOLVES THE LOW TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA WITH
SOME SEMBLANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...WHICH BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR PART OF
THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 150 155 165 170 172 173 174 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&