Gale Warning 390, NWS Anchorage, AK

288 
FZAK52 PAFC 212313
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221230-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 977 MB LOW 160 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK MOVES TO 150 NM SOUTH OF
SAINT PAUL AND WEAKENS TO 993 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA
PENINSULA WEAKENS AND TRACKS EAST. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO
430 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-221230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-221230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT BECOMING S 20 KT W OF THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-221230-
BRISTOL BAY-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-221230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING OUT OF
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-221230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-221230-
UNALASKA BAY-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-221230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-221230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND  20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND BECOMING W 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-221230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-221230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-221230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-221230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BERING SIDE...W WIND 35 KT PACIFIC
SIDE. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT BERING SIDE...NW WIND 35 KT PACIFIC SIDE.
SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE... 20 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 16 FT
EXCEPT 11 FT BERING SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ178-221230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-221230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-221230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-221230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.

$$

PKZ185-221230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
523 AM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC...ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND ITS
NORTHERN PERIPHERY CONTINUES TO BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO KODIAK
ISLAND. OUT WEST...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING ACCOMPANIED BY A WIDE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AND
GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL BERING...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT STALLING OUT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS
THE AKPEN AND SOUTHERN GULF AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE OVER THE
MAINLAND. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO THE BERING AND SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE END OF WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
PLEASANT CONDITIONS MARKED BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE MAINLAND. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THIS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
KODIAK ISLAND AS THE BERING FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF. A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DIURNAL PROCESSES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE ISOLATED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN BRISTOL BAY TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL
THEN DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY FLATTENS OUT AND THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. BEHIND
THESE SHOWERS...PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST THAT WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. CLOUDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WORKS
ITS WAY WESTWARD...AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO COASTAL BRISTOL BAY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE ALEUTIAN LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
WEAKENING FRONT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH LEFT IN IT TO BRING
STRONG WINDS TO THE DUTCH HARBOR AREA TODAY...AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE PRIBILOFS AND AKPEN THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL SWITCH
OVER TO JUST RAIN AFTER A FEW HOURS...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE MINIMAL. WHILE THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COAST LATE TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH MID WEEK LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TO A CONSENSUS THAT THE NEXT
ALEUTIAN LOW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND...MOST LIKELY KEEPING MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN MAINLAND DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. THE GULF COAST ON THE
OTHER HAND WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS WITH A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS FIRST APPEARANCE
OF THE SEASON LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BRING IN
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...BUT OTHERWISE
DRY AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 170 172 173 176 177 178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

CB/DEK APR 14