Gale Warning 384, NWS Anchorage, AK

268 
FZAK51 PAFC 182254
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191145-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 972 MB LOW 535 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL DISSIPATE 350 NM SE
OF KODIAK SAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER 972 MB LOW WILL FORM 425 NM SOUTH
OF SITKA FRI NIGHT THEN WEAKEN TO 982 MB AS IT MOVES TO 245 NM
EAST OF KODIAK SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-191145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-191145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-191145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-191145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-191145-
PORT VALDEZ-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-191145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-191145-
VALDEZ ARM-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-191145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-191145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-191145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-191145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-191145-
CHINIAK BAY-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-191145-
MARMOT BAY-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-191145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-191145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-191145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-191145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
254 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1254 PM AKDT THU APR 17 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSES ALL OF
ALASKA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH A NEAR ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET
CENTERED ALONG 40N. THERE IS ONE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE AND BUCKLE IN
THE JET BETWEEN 160W AND 170W WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS WEEKEND OVER THE GULF.
MEANWHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS A LARGE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING/EASTERN ALEUTIANS. NUMEROUS
SHORT-WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW PRODUCING MAINLY
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH A COUPLE OF SHORT-WAVES/SURFACE LOWS OVER THE GULF ARE
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SUNNY SKIES DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY INLAND AREAS. THAT WILL
CHANGE TONIGHT AS THE GULF SYSTEMS PROGRESS INLAND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ALL INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL WITH
MAJOR FEATURES AND SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW THE SAME IDEA WITH
HANDLING OF INTENSIFYING SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER DEEP LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC/ALEUTIANS THIS WEEKEND. AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW CURVES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF EXPECT TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT
CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON EXACT POSITION OF THE TWO LOWS. SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE FURTHER AS THESE LOWS CONSOLIDATE BACK INTO A
SINGLE LOW. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL MAINLY AFFECT KODIAK ISLAND
AND THE GULF MARINE AREAS. FOR NOW PREFER THE VERY CONSISTENT
ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL FALL
ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER DO EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE A SHOWER OR
TWO AS THESE WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. AS THESE WAVES EXIT TO THE NORTH
AND THE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE GULF A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KICK UP WINDS ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM (INTO PORTIONS OF ANCHORAGE) AND THE KNIK RIVER
VALLEY (INTO PALMER). THIS RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED QUICKLY NORTHWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD. FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE LOW WHILE A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CRYSTAL CLEAR DAY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW APPROACH SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
BERING/ALEUTIAN LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WON'T BE WIDESPREAD...BUT LIKE
SOUTHCENTRAL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE A LITTLE SOMETHING.
MARGINALLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THE UPPER WAVES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
MAY TURN PRECIPITATION TO SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT
DON'T EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION. THE BERING SYSTEM WILL COMPLETELY
FALL APART THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF BECOMES
DOMINANT. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS
AND PRECIP MAY BACK THERE WAY FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO BRISTOL
BAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE BERING/ALEUTIAN LOW WILL WOBBLE ITS WAY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND WILL THEN BE TORN APART AS HALF OF THE ENERGY IS PUSHED
NORTHWARD BY THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF AND THE OTHER HALF
IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN BERING
AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC.
THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD...PROVING BENIGN CONDITIONS
FOR THE WESTERN TO EASTERN BERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW WILL BOTTOM OUT AS IT NEARS THE
ALEUTIANS...SO EXPECT FULL IMPACT OF THIS STORM TO AFFECT THE
ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF CONCERN IN THE DAY 4
THROUGH 7 PERIOD AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SPREADS OUT ACROSS THE
BERING SEA POSSIBLY AS FAR AS THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THE GULF LOW
WILL SINK SOUTHWARD WHILE RIDGING SETS UP OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA. THUS EXPECT A QUIET WEEK OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS LOOK VERY SPRING-LIKE...SO
EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL
IN THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND 50S INLAND. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

SEB APR 14