Gale Warning 352, NWS Anchorage, AK

634 
FZAK62 PAFC 201146
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
346 AM AKDT SUN APR 20 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-210230-
346 AM AKDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 978 MB NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 49N 178E AT 975 MB
THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKEN TO 980 MB AS IT MOVES TO 52N 178W MON
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SUN MORNING TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON MON AND DISSIPATE MON
EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-210230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
346 AM AKDT SUN APR 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ412-210230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
346 AM AKDT SUN APR 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-210230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
346 AM AKDT SUN APR 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EARLY BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ414-210230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
346 AM AKDT SUN APR 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING E 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT S OF 56N .
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

394 
FZAK62 PAFC 202310
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKDT SUN APR 20 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-211315-
310 PM AKDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR 48N 175E WILL TRACK TO 52N 179E AT 974 MB MON
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN TO 982 MB AS IT MOVES TO 53N 175W TUE
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
THIS EVENING TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY MON...THEN TRACK INLAND
BY LATE TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-211315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
310 PM AKDT SUN APR 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-211315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
310 PM AKDT SUN APR 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-211315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
310 PM AKDT SUN APR 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

PKZ414-211315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
310 PM AKDT SUN APR 20 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

601 
FZAK62 PAFC 211141
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
341 AM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-220215-
341 AM AKDT MON APR 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR 53N 180 WILL TRACK TO 53N 177E AT 976 MB THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN TO 986 MB AS IT MOVES TO 54N 174W TUE
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
THIS EVENING TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY MON...THEN TRACK INLAND
BY LATE TUE EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-220215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
341 AM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-220215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
341 AM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-220215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
341 AM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT TOWARD
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

PKZ414-220215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
341 AM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

828 
FZAK62 PAFC 212313
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221315-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 977 MB LOW NEAR 53N 179E MOVES TO 55N 172W AND WEAKENS TO 993 MB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO
OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA WEAKENS AND TRACKS SLOWLY EAST.

$$

PKZ411-221315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 0 TO 5 FT.

$$

PKZ412-221315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 0 TO 5 FT.

$$

PKZ413-221315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ414-221315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
313 PM AKDT MON APR 21 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 0 TO 5 FT.

$$

417 
FZAK62 PAFC 221145
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
345 AM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-230200-
345 AM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR 53N 179W WEAKENS TO 994 MB AS IT DRIFTS TO 55N
174W WED EVENING AND THEN BECOMES A 991 MB LOW NEAR 54N 179W WED
NIGHT. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW INTENSIFIES TO 987 MB AS IT MOVES TO
49N 177W WED NIGHT.


$$

PKZ411-230200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
345 AM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE TO NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.WED...NE TO NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ412-230200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
345 AM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

PKZ413-230200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
345 AM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ414-230200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
345 AM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1248 PM AKDT SAT APR 19 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE BERING SEA TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH AN INTENSE LOW MOVING
UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
CENTRAL PRESSURE BOTTOMED OUT OVER NIGHT WITH THE OCCLUSION
WRAPPING ITSELF AROUND THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW HAS BECOME
ELONGATED EAST-WEST WITH THE ORIGINAL CENTER ON THE WEST SIDE AND
A SECONDARY LOW ON THE EAST SIDE BEGINNING TO DOMINATE. A TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WITH A SOLID BAND OF RAIN FROM KODIAK INTO
BRISTOL BAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW ROTATES BACK TOWARD THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE IS BUILDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALASKA
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THIS IS GRADUALLY PUSHING THE
LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND PRECIP SHIELD SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THIS RIDGE BUILDING IN. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING IS ALSO PUSHING WESTWARD
WITH A BAND OF PRECIP FROM NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS DOWN TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. LASTLY...A RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
BERING AHEAD OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW AS IT CURVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND THEN BACK SOUTHWARD. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND
TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GEMGLB/GEMREG MODELS...SO WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND. ONE HIGHER
IMPACT DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HANDLING OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH ROTATES ACROSS THE GULF NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. NAM
SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH EASTERLY WINDS AS THIS REACHES WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. BASED ON THE POSITION OF PARENT LOW AND
ORIENTATION OF ISOBARS EXPECT ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
WINDS TO PREVENT STRONG EASTERLIES FROM PUSHING INLAND. GEMREG
SEEMS LIKE IT HAS A MORE REALISTIC DEPICTION OF THIS. IF WINDS
WERE TO COME UP THEN THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WOULD BE MET IN THE PALMER AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE OTHERWISE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE BULK OF IMPACTS WITH THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME
CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AIR MASS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL REMAIN QUITE STABLE...SO DON'T EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO TRIGGER
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AND INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA AND REMAIN IN PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS LOOK SLOW TO WARM...SO THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STABLE. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK WAVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE YUKON WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...BUT DON'T YET HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THAT
YET.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH ALL PRECIP
OUT OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING WILL
SHIFT GEARS AND LIFT BACK NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
JUST CLIPPING PART OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST...MAINLY ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THE RIDGE AND SOME
SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE BERING WILL PUSH A FRONT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST
TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIME OF ARRIVAL
AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO ELONGATE AND SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC AND RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL CAUSE THE EASTERN BERING
TROUGH TO STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD BACK THE OTHER DIRECTION
TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BENIGN
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE BERING SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BOTTOM OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN ALEUTIANS SO EXPECT A STRONG FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS...BUT IT WILL QUICKLY LOSE STEAM AS IT SPREADS OUT
ACROSS THE BERING SEA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
DETAILS...BUT SHOW THE SAME GENERAL TRENDS. THE BLOCKING RIDGE
OVER THE MAINLAND WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
ARCTIC NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM WHICH MOVES INTO
THE BERING AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND...FORCING IT TO EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK. THE BIGGEST AREA OF UNCERTAINTY
IS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND EXITING LOW.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PACE WITH INDIVIDUAL FEATURES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW...SO IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT ANY SINGLE FEATURE. BARRING
ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE WOULD EXPECT THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT
OF SUN AROUND NEXT WEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND CONDITIONS
WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE (WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR).

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...119 120 131 132 138 155 170 172 173 174
                        175 176 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SEB APR 14