Gale Warning 31, NWS Anchorage, AK

762 
FZAK61 PAFC 281250
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 28 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-290300-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 981 MB LOW AT 52N 158W WILL MOVE TO 56N 157W THIS EVENING AT 995 MB
THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF ON WED. 
$$

PKZ351-290300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 28 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-290300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 28 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

JM

487 
FZAK61 PAFC 282357
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 28 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-291500-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 989 MB LOW AT 55N 158W WILL MOVE TO 57N 157W AT 1001 MB LATE
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-291500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 28 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 12
FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-291500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 28 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 17
FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT TOWARD MORNING. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO
13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

840 
FZAK61 PAFC 291251
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED JAN 29 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-300300-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ351-300300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST WED JAN 29 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-300300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST WED JAN 29 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST MON JAN 27 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
THERE IS AN ELONGATED FRONT ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW THAT
STRETCHES ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THERE IS ANOTHER LOW TO THE
WEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...WITH A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THERE IS A STRONG RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA THAT
EXTENDS INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE MAIN PROBLEM AREA IS WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE
SPLITTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE BERING/ALEUTIANS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET
ARE CREATING A LARGER SPLIT...AT 60 HOURS THEY HAVE ONE SURFACE LOW
NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AND ONE WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS HAS ONLY A WEAK FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA AND THE SOUTHERN LOW IS NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/ALASKA
PENINSULA REGION. THE NAM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS IN THE NORTH AND
SIMILAR TO THE UKMET IN THE SOUTH. THE GEM HAS VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN
THE NORTH AND A LOW IN THE SOUTH SIMILAR TO THE UKMET. A PREFERENCE
WAS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO THE ECMWF'S BETTER
PERFORMANCE IN SPLITTING SYSTEMS (DUE TO HIGHER RESOLUTION AND
BETTER DATA ASSIMILATION) AND THE FACT THAT IT IS BACKED UP BY THE
UKMET.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY THEN DISSIPATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HOWEVER...COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT ALLOWING FREEZING
LEVELS TO DROP. ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW THAT
WAS SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS KODIAK. ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING THIS LOW WILL COME UP AGAINST THE CANADIAN RIDGE AND
DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AS
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WESTERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS EASTERLY OR SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AS THE LOW WEAKENS.

FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE PATTERN WILL BE SLIGHTLY
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF FRONTS TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FIRST FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL REACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH 131.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 178.
         GALE WARNING 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 174 180
                     181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG JAN 14