Gale Warning 274, NWS Anchorage, AK

916 
FZAK52 PAFC 060031
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-061500-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.
A 995 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR ATKA THU EVENING AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-061500-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 7
FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-061500-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-061500-
BRISTOL BAY
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 

.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-061500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-061500-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-061500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-061500-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-061500-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-061500-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-061500-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.   

$$

PKZ176-061500-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-061500-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ178-061500-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-061500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 

.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-061500-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ181-061500-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT.  
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ185-061500-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
845 PM AKST TUE MAR 4 2014

UPDATED SOUTHCENTRAL...
A TOUCH OF SE FLOW ALOFT STILL KEEPING PRECIP SHIELD AT BAY OVER THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL. HAVE TWEAKED SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR SLIGHTLY LESS
TONIGHT AND A BIT MORE FOR WED. STRONGEST LIFT STILL MAINLY OVER THE
SUSITNA VALLEY THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE MIGRATING SOUTH TO EAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.

UPDATED SOUTHCENTRAL...
HAVE UPDATED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH
WED...SPECIFICALLY FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE KENAI
RADAR IMAGERY REMAINS UNAVAILABLE...IR AND WV SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTING SOME DECENT MOISTURE PLUMING BECOMING LARGER IN SCOPE
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AREA SURFACE OBSERVATION
VISIBILITIES ALSO TRENDING LOWER IN MODERATE SNOWFALL. A 500 MB JET
STREAK IS BECOMING STATIONARY OVERHEAD AS THE PARENT UPPER-LOW OVER
SW AK STALLS. THIS IS LIKELY SUPPORTING SOME STRONGER LIFT. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ISSUED...VALID THROUGH MID DAY WEDNESDAY.

UPDATE...JAM

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MAINLAND ALASKA CENTERED JUST NORTH
OF MCGRATH. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA AND OVER NORTHEAST RUSSIA...WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE
BERING SEA CONNECTING THESE TWO HIGHS. AN NORTH PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS
(THURSDAY AFTERNOON) THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A LOW MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND
SLOWER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS. DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT
FROM OTHER MODELS FOR THE GFS SOLUTION AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF...THE ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. DYNAMICS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SNOWFALL THIS EVENING WITH SNOW EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODERATE WITH THE
(RELATIVELY DRY) NORTHERLY SOURCE REGION OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN IT WILL BE IN THE
BERING SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCES
OF SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE AREA NEVER REALLY GETS INTO THE
DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE AREA OF THE LOW AND THUS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOW POPS AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
AREA AND MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE (AND POSSIBLY ALEUTIAN RANGE) WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GIVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 173 174 175 176 177 178 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAR 14