Gale Warning 27, NWS Anchorage, AK

394 
FZAK61 PAFC 251249
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 25 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-260300-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A PACIFIC WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATES OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUN MORNING. A 963 MB LOW NEAR 46N
146W SUN MORNING WEAKENS TO 969 MB SUN NIGHT NEAR 52N 159W. AN
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE GULF SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-260300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 25 2014

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-260300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 25 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

JM

625 
FZAK61 PAFC 260032
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 25 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-261500-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A 972 MB LOW NEAR 50N 150W
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOVES TO 53N 172W AT 974 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON. ITS
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE GULF MONDAY.
$$

PKZ351-261500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 25 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-261500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 25 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT.  RAIN DEVELOPING
DURING THE EVENING.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

833 
FZAK61 PAFC 261253
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 26 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-270300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN GULF TODAY. A 969 MB LOW NEAR 50N 150W THIS AFTERNOON
MOVES TO 53N 160W AT 966 MB MONDAY MORNING THEN TO 54N 159W AT 980 MB
MONDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE
GULF MONDAY.
$$

PKZ351-270300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 26 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-270300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 26 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 
FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND INTO MAINLAND ALASKA...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE BERING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. MULTIPLE
UPPER WAVES...INCLUDING A CUTOFF LOW JUST NORTH OF 40N...CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A 135+KT UPPER LEVEL JET
WHICH STRETCHES FROM 35N THROUGH MAINLAND ALASKA. AN IMPRESSIVE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARM MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF SOUTHCENTRAL CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM 35N AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A 981 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTH AND SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN BERING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS REPORT SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...AS THE ASSOCIATED
EASTERN BERING LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD. A STACKED 979 MB NORTH PACIFIC
LOW CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...WHICH HAS TILTED THE RIDGE TOWARD NORTHWEST AND HAS CHANGED
THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW WIDE SPREAD
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF...AS A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF BEGINS TO CUT OFF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL FLOW TO THE AREA. A 983 MB LOW JUST WEST OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FEATURE CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD AND BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE COMPLEX.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIR SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION REGARDING THE
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE EC
REMAINS THE MOST UTILIZED MODEL...BEING THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN AND MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE NAM AND GFS
BEGIN TO LAG BEHIND THE EC SOLUTION REGARDING BOTH SYSTEMS...BUT HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TOWARDS THE EC SOLUTION. THE MOST RECENT
RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE LOCKED IN ON THE EC SOLUTIONS...WHERE
THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER REGARDING THE TRACK OF BOTH OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SYSTEMS OF INTEREST. THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO LEAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE BEGINS
TO BUILD AS THE MODELS BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS THE EC SOLUTION AND
SHOW IMPROVED CONSISTENCY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY
TRACKING NORTHWEST OVER KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING AND WEAKENING AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW NEAR 45N WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF SAND POINT...WITH MULTIPLE ASSOCIATED FRONTS
PUSHING INTO THE AKPEN AND WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL FORM JUST SOUTH OF THE INITIAL NORTH PACIFIC
LOW SATURDAY MORNING AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...THEN
BEGINS TO ABSORB THE SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST AND
BECOMES THE MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC BY SUNDAY
EVENING. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FINAL LOW WILL ENTER THE GULF
SUNDAY EVENING AND PUSH INTO THE GULF COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN BERING WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM A KAMCHATKA LOW
ENTERING THE WESTERN BERING SAT AFTERNOON. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
TRACK EAST AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY EVENING. A STRONGER LOW TRACKS UP THE
COAST OF KAMCHATKA SUNDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
ENTERING THE WESTERN BERING BY MONDAY MORNING. THE DEEP LOW CURRENTLY
NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
CLEARING THOUGH THIS EVENING...AS THE FIREHOSE OF MOISTURE SHIFTS
MAINLY OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
TONIGHT WILL BRING A BRIEF BATCH OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND
KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ENDING PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG OVER PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER
KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AS MULTIPLE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAST THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN WILL RETURN
TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS THE FINAL FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN OVER
THE AREA MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AS THE LOW NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND TRACK FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER MUCH
OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN CAPES BEFORE BRIEFLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP SATURDAY MORNING
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE FIRST OF THREE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WORKS ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATING ON AND OFF OVER MUCH OF THE BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM
DELTA REGIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND AND THIRD FRONTAL
SYSTEMS.

THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN...
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND CENTRAL BERING THIS EVENING...AND WILL
TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING AS THE EAST BERING LOW TRACKS FURTHER
NORTH. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS...WITH SOME RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE AKPEN
AND EASTERN MOST ALEUTIANS. TWO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS ASSOCIATED
WITH MULTIPLE LOWS THAT TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF KAMCHATKA WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING AREAS OF SNOW TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED PATTERN REMAINS ANOMALOUSLY WARM. WHILE THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS BEING BROKEN DOWN BY
GUIDANCE...IT IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A REX BLOCK. A CLOSED UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE GULF/SOUTHCENTRAL NORTHWARD OF A CLOSED
UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC LOOKS TO SLOW THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN ONCE
AGAIN. THE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WOULD BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NOT AS MUCH WIND/PRECIPITATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC... FLASH FLOOD WATCH 131.
MARINE...GALE 130 131 132 138 150-176 180 181 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&
TP