Gale Warning 269, NWS Anchorage, AK

506 
FZAK62 PAFC 312336
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
336 PM AKDT MON MAR 31 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-011330-
336 PM AKDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR 51N 174W WILL MOVE TO 54N 170W LATE TUE MORNING
AT 990 MB BEFORE DISSIPATING. A 988 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE NEAR
50N 179E WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-011330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
336 PM AKDT MON MAR 31 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-011330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
336 PM AKDT MON MAR 31 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-011330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
336 PM AKDT MON MAR 31 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E TO S WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-011330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
336 PM AKDT MON MAR 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E TO S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

MSO

116 
FZAK62 PAFC 011118
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
318 AM AKDT TUE APR 1 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-020130-
318 AM AKDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 987 MB LOW NEAR 52N 171W WILL MOVE NEAR 53N 170W AT 990 MB
TUESDAY MIDDAY AND DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 983 MB LOW
NEAR 45N 175E WILL MOVE NEAR 48N 180E AT 985 MB WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NEAR 53N 174W AT 984 MB THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-020130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
318 AM AKDT TUE APR 1 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-020130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
318 AM AKDT TUE APR 1 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-020130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
318 AM AKDT TUE APR 1 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-020130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
318 AM AKDT TUE APR 1 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
450 PM AKDT SUN MAR 30 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND STRETCHING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...KEEPING
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. OTHERWISE
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND CONTINUES TO BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS FOCUSED FURTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE ALEUTIANS AS A
STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING
STRONG WINDS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CHAIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND...AND A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE
TUESDAY MORNING REGARDING THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

THE EC AND NAM HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z
RUN...KEEPING THE LOW CENTER SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND OVER
ATKA...WHEREAS THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE FASTER AND MORE EASTERN
SOLUTION. THE MODELS THEN AGREE ON TRACKING THE LOW CENTER
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE WITH THE EC AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE SHORT
TERM...THE NAM SOLUTION WAS UTILIZED FOR ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
YIELD PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR GAP
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. STRONGER WINDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD
RETURN TO KODIAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFORE MENTIONED NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY MONDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY
MONDAY DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MONDAY EXTENDING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...AS THE 964 MB LOW
OVER THE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CHAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
WINDS NORTH AND EASTWARD...BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR FILTERS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE BERING SEA WILL HAVE PREDOMINANTLY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AS
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES THROUGH UNALASKA BY THURSDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHERN
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN/BERING SEA. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA
AND WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN
GULF BRINGING WETTER CONDITIONS TO THE COASTLINE AREAS WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 165 171 174 175 176 178 179 180 181 185.
		 STORM 170 172 173.
		 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

TP MAR 14