Gale Warning 244, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Mar 14, 2014, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)

Expired

Mar 14, 2014, 4:00 PM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

060 
FZAK62 PAFC 141152
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 14 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-150000-
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING FRI AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EASTERN BERING SAT AFTERNOON. A 967 MB LOW NEAR 51N 162E
EARLY SAT MORNING WILL MOVE TO 53N 176E EARLY SUN MORNING AT NEARLY
THE SAME STRENGTH. A 970 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 55N 174W SAT NIGHT AND
MOVES TO 57N 170W EARLY SUN MORNING AT THE SAME STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ411-150000-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 14 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 56N. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING E 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
57N. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-150000-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 14 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING E 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-150000-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 14 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING N OF 55N. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-150000-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 14 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING N OF 56N. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON N OF 57N.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Mar 13, 2:00 PM AKDT, 14 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT THU MAR 13 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. A
STRONG LOW IS SPINNING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND
MOVING NORTH. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO LOWS IS
SITUATED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THEN SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE GULF LOW AND THIS IS
CREATING SOME DIFFICULTIES WITH THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
AND STRONGER WITH THE LOW THAN THE GFS AND NAM. THE UKMET IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GEM GLOBAL AND GEM LOCAL ARE IN
BETWEEN...BUT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THEN THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION DUE TO ITS SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE AND BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS. UNFORTUNATELY WE ONLY GET HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA FOR
THE NAM AND GFS (ESPECIALLY THE NAM)...AND THIS CREATES CHALLENGES
FORECASTING SMALL SCALE (BUT IMPORTANT) DETAILS. THUS THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE LOW SPINNING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND THEN INLAND ON
FRIDAY. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS LOW.
THIS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON KODIAK AS IT PASSES...AND
PROBABLY AROUND KACHEMAK BAY AS WELL. SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH WITH THE
LOW/COLD FRONT AND REACH ANCHORAGE SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
(TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE MODEL ISSUES MENTIONED
ABOVE).

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM THE CURRENT
"BLOCKY/HIGH AMPLITUDE" INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE BERING UPPER LOW
WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON SATURDAY...THEN BE "KICKED OUT"
TO THE NORTH BY THE NEXT LOW APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST. THIS
NEXT LOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE BERING SEA LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE LEADING FRONT WILL REACH SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE BERING LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL DRY
AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
BRIEF RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LEADING FRONT OF THE NEXT LOW WILL
REACH THE WEST COAST SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA DURING THE DAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 171.
         BLIZZARD WATCH 125.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119.
         GALE WARNING 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 141 150 155
                        160 176 177 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 131 136 137 138 139 140 141 150
                        155 160 165 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAR 14

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2014Every gale warning in 2014

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.