Gale Warning 240, NWS Anchorage, AK

878 
FZAK61 PAFC 112348
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 11 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-121200-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW AT 61N 151W WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE LATE WED
MORNING. A 968 MB LOW AT 52N 162W LATE WED MORNING WILL MOVE TO 54N
157W LATE WED NIGHT THEN TO 58N 152W THU AFTERNOON AT 975 MB.
$$

PKZ351-121200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 11 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO
16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-121200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 11 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 19 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT MON MAR 10 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS WEEK
COMPARED TO LAST WEEK. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION IS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...AN WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST (THURSDAY AFTERNOON). THERE IS AN UPPER
LOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...STRADDLING THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. THE JET STREAM IS FAIRLY ZONAL FROM ASIA ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC (GENERALLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 DEGREES LATITUDE) AND THEN
CURVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS MOVING EASTWARD AS IT "RIDES"
THE JET STREAM.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND MAINTAIN GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. NORMALLY THIS WOULD GIVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST...BUT THIS IS OFFSET BY THE STRONG NATURE OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT CREATES SOME SIGNIFICANT LOCAL EFFECTS THAT CAN
BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER
TUESDAY (BY THIS TIME A WEAK UPPER OPEN-WAVE TROUGH). DOWNSLOPE
EFFECTS WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG COOK INLET (NORTH OF CLAM GULCH)
FAIRLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND/OR
FLURRIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN TAPERING OFF ON TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY NIGHT
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD WEAKEN THE DOWNSLOPE WITH THE CHANGE IN UPPER/MED LEVEL WIND
DIRECTION AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO ANCHORAGE
AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TURNAGAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH

ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE MOVED TO SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN SWING NORTH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE MEAN BERING TROUGH ON THURSDAY.

TURNAGAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
STRONG THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER IMPULSES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT WINDS MAY APPROACH WARNING
LEVELS.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW STRADDLING
THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT.
SOME MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE EVEN BEHIND THIS
LOW...WITH SOME DRYING EXPECTED ONCE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT LOW
(THE ONE CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS) ARRIVES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING 125.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119.
         GALE WARNING 120 125 170 172 176 177 178 179 180 181 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAR 14