Gale Warning 225, NWS Anchorage, AK

896 
FZAK62 PAFC 040001
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON MAR 3 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041300-
400 PM AKST MON MAR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN BERING THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A 988 MB LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 45N 175E TUE MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 970 MB AS IT MOVES TO 48N 177E EARLY WED MORNING THEN
DRIFT SOUTH AS IT WEAKENS TO 977 MB AT 45N 178E WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-041300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON MAR 3 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-041300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON MAR 3 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
57N. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-041300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON MAR 3 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-041300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON MAR 3 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 2 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE AND EASTERN BERING SEA. SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE NEAR 42N IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND INTO NORTHERN ALASKA
WILL BECOME STRONGER AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE YUKON WITH
ANOTHER CENTER IN EASTERN RUSSIA. THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN THESE
CENTERS PERSISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT OVER THE MAINLAND
PART OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME SUBTLETIES IN
THE SET UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER COOK INLET WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS IN THAT AREA. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM
IS SHOWING A LITTLE DELAY IN THE ONSET OF SNOW DUE TO SOME DOWN SLOPE
OFF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. IN THE END BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING
JUST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST STALLS OVER OR JUST WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL IT COULD
LEAD TO HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...AREAS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE THE MAIN ISSUES FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS
CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BUT SOME LOCAL EFFECTS ARE KEEPING IT
IN THE WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND IN AREAS AROUND COOK INLET.
KODIAK IS THE EXCEPTION TO THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WHERE EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE STRATUS IN THE AREA.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE
REGION FOR A FEW MORE DAYS WITH NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE INTERIOR.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF
ADAK WILL KEEP MOISTURE PUSHED ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE FRONT DISSIPATES. CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE
EASTERN BERING SEA WITH DRY AIR FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STRATUS REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW BUT THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING BEFORE THEN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SOUTHEAST/EAST GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THIS LOW WITH THE MODELS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 14