Gale Warning 157, NWS Anchorage, AK

629 
FZAK61 PAFC 260040
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 25 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-261300-
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 971 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW CENTERED NEAR 47N 150W WILL MOVE TO 54N
161W AT 979 MB WED AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONTS
WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN TO NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING.

$$

PKZ351-261300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 25 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-261300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 25 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 PM AKST MON FEB 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AT THE NORTH END OF A
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY THAT
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. THIS IS SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING THE NORTH AND EAST PUSH OF
THE LOW AND FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. THE WEAK LOW NEAR SITKINAK HAS A DISSIPATING FRONT THAT
EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING THE
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA ACROSS THE EASTERN ALASKA
PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY TO THE YUKON KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE HIGH OVER
THE EASTERN MAINLAND IS SUPPORTING THE EASTERLY GALES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA. THE NEXT DOMINANT SYSTEM ON TAP IS THE 978
MB LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND. THIS LOW WILL BE ABOUT 300 NM
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AROUND 972 MB TUE NIGHT.

OUT WEST THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING TO ANOTHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS IS SUPPORTING SHOWERY WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA. THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL ROTATE NORTH NORTHEAST THEN CURVE BACK TO THE WEST OF THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SMALL WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BE OVERCOME BY THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY TOMORROW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE LOW
WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVING TO SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WITH MINOR DIFFERENCE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CENTER BY
WED MORNING. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THIS LOW WILL END UP NEAR
SAND POINT AROUND 980 MB WED AFTERNOON. THIS LEADS TO MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXPECTATION OF A WARM MOIST PUSH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY WED. THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE
SUB TROPICS THUS EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF KODIAK ISLAND BY WED. THE WARM PUSH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WHERE CURRENTLY THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING AROUND -6 TO -8 CELSIUS AND WILL BE WARMING TO AS HIGH AS
6 CELSIUS BY WED MORNING. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
WIND AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. GALE AND STORM
FORCE WIND ARE EXPECTED ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
ENERGY FROM THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN LOW AND TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND
HELP TO DEEPEN THE OVERALL TROUGH A BIT WITH THE PACIFIC LOW NEAR 45N
145W DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA NORTH TO THE YUKON TERRITORY STAYS IN
PLACE AND RETROGRADES WEST TO EXTEND UP ALONG THE COAST OF THE
PANHANDLE TO NEAR NORTHWAY THROUGH WED. MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER HIGH
BECOMING RATHER ENTRENCHED AND STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF...
THE WEAK LOW AND FRONT AROUND THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THUS THE LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OF TO FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE UPON KODIAK ISLAND BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITATION WHICH SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES TUE NIGHT AS A 100 KT JET STREAK WILL BE COINCIDENT TO THE
FRONTAL LIFT REGION. MAX GALE AND MINIMUM STORM FORCE WIND IS
EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OFF SHORE AREAS TO
AROUND KODIAK ISLAND AND THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA.

OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
BUT HOLD STRONG OVER THE PANHANDLE TO THE ALCAN BORDER. THE QUESTION
IS WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL
PUSH OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS USUAL ACROSS KODIAK
ISLAND AND WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WE ARE STILL THINKING THE
INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX THAT RAPIDLY
CHANGES OVER THE RAIN. CLOUD COVER OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA TO
ANCHORAGE OVERNIGHT TUE WILL HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES HIGHER BUT
THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IF ANY WED MORNING
COULD BRIEFLY BE FREEZING RAIN. THE DOWN SLOPE IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION HOWEVER. THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY WED.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS TRACKED THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
BRINGING WITH IT A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH RAIN/SNOW THROUGH
THE EVENING THAT WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE WESTERN CAPES AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN
CHAIN RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHTER WIND AND THE SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION. THE WEAK LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE CLOUDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW PUSHES NORTH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO GALE FORCE. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THUS EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW DEPENDING UPON
HOW THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BY THU THE RIDGE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE ALCAN BORDER WILL STILL
BE HOLDING STRONG WITH LOW PRESSURE FROM THE BERING SEA SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC REMAINING THE DOMINANT FEATURES FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND TO
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BUT SOUTHWEST ALASKA SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW FORMING OFF NORTHERN JAPAN LATE TONIGHT
THAT WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 960 MB SYSTEM AROUND 500 MI SOUTH OF ADAK
BY THU. WITH THE BULK OF THE JET STREAM ENERGY PERSISTING ALONG OR
SOUTH OF 40N LATITUDE THIS LOW'S TRACK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN AND ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...120 130 131 132 136 137 139 150 155 160 165 180 351
                352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SAM