Gale Warning 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

737 
FZAK61 PAFC 061243
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 6 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-070300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN THE GULF
THROUGH TUE MORNING. A 994 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 52N 149W TUE
MORNING AND WILL MOVE TO 56N 142W AT 987 MB LATE TUE. AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH.
$$

PKZ351-070300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST MON JAN 6 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-070300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST MON JAN 6 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN JAN 5 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL "STEERING" LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH A "LOBE" EXTENDING INTO THE BERING SEA THEN SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THERE
IS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA EXTENDING INTO THE YUKON. BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW IS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A VERY LONG FETCH INTO THE SUBTROPICS. THERE ARE
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ALONG THE UPPER LOW "LOBE"
MOVING INTO/TOWARD SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES EARLY ON INVOLVE THE LOCATION/TIMING OF SURFACE LOWS AND
THE WEAK UPPER TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS
INTO THE FORECAST THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN
GULF. THE GFS...UKMET...AND GEM GLOBAL ARE STRONGER AND FURTHER
EAST/SLOWER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. CONFIDENCE WITH
THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THEREFORE LOW. AFTERNOON FORECASTS
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR CONTINUITY REASONS. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS FEATURE WILL CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST PACKAGES AS THE MODELS (HOPEFULLY) GET A
BETTER GRASP ON THE SITUATION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA INTO
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PERIODICALLY ENHANCE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
EXPECTED WITH RAIN...SNOW...SNOW/ICE PELLETS EXPECTED...AND EVEN
SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE (OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA
THIS EVENING). NONE OF THE SYSTEMS IS PARTICULARLY STRONG BY ALASKA
STANDARDS FOR WIND OR PRECIPITATION.

ON TUESDAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE A LOW IN THE GULF WILL BRING SOME
RIDGING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA...BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN WEST COAST RIDGE. THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THIS
RIDGE ARE STILL BIG QUESTION MARKS DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE LOW (ADDRESSED ABOVE). BUT THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER AT SOME POINT...WITH A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY THAT MAY (OR
MAY NOT) LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 150 155 160 172 174 178 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG JAN 14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1114 AM AKST SUN JAN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     SNOW             SW THOMPSON PASS        61.14N 145.75W
01/05/2014  M13.0 INCH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            11 INCHES SINCE 6 PM. STORM TOTAL 13 INCHES

0915 AM     SNOW             SKWENTNA                61.99N 151.40W
01/05/2014  M6.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            6 INCHES OVERNIGHT. 28 INCHES SNOW DEPTH

0930 AM     SNOW             26 NNE CHASE            62.82N 149.91W
01/05/2014  M3.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MDT SN FALLING

1000 AM     SNOW             22 W SKWENTNA           61.99N 152.08W
01/05/2014  E18.0 INCH                          AK   AIRPLANE PILOT

            STORM TOTAL.

&&

KUTZ