Gale Warning 100, NWS Anchorage, AK

672 
FZAK51 PAFC 230002
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231500-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 962 MB LOW 430 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY MOVES TO 90 NM SOUTH OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND AT 978 MB FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. SECONDARY WEATHER FRONTS AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
$$

PKZ119-231500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. NEAR THE COAST...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING 
SE 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT INCREASING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-231500-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-231500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF 
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-231500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT BY MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-231500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-231500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-231500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-231500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-231500-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-231500-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING 
NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231500-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-231500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-231500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-231500-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-231500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-231500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST WED JAN 22 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
COAST THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWEST ACROSS ALL OF
MAINLAND AK. A 175 KT JET IS TAKING AIM WITH AN ASSOCIATED FIREHOSE
OF MOISTURE AT THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS IT
TRAVELS DUE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS ALL OF EASTERN RUSSIA...KAMCHATKA...AND THE
WESTERN BERING...AND EXTENDS WELL SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. EMBEDDED
CUT-OFF UPPER LOWS ARE OVER FAR EASTERN RUSSIAN AND THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE...A MASSIVE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN IS ADJACENT TO AN
EQUALLY MASSIVE RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF AK AND SOUTHEAST AK. A
MUCH WEAKER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WITH A WEAK LOW
WEST OF ATTU. REMAINS OF A WEATHER FRONT ARE ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST WHERE THAT FIREHOSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
A NEW WAVE ALONG THE FIREHOSE IS DEVELOPING AROUND 40 N...WELL SOUTH
OF KODIAK ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN TO
THE NORTHERN BERING BY FRI BEFORE WEAKENING OVER FAR EASTERN RUSSIA
SAT AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL DISSIPATE TODAY WHILE THE WAVE ON THE FIREHOSE MAKES ITS
WAY TO THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A SECOND FRONT MOVING INLAND DURING THAT TIME. BY FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT THE HIGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL REASSERT
ITSELF WITH A WESTWARD PUSH...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF TO KODIAK ISLAND. ON SUN COMPLEX LOWS IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL CONSOLIDATE AND BRING A FOURTH FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

IN THE WEST A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS AND BROAD AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATE ON SUN A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM A KAMCHATKA LOW WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CHAIN AND PERSIST MON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MAINLY AROUND THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SNOW
AND NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH. RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD TOMORROW SNOW SHOWERS WILL FILTER IN WITH THE COLD
SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL AFFECT CENTRAL/EASTERN
BERING SEA OVER THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS MORNING BEFORE WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PRECIPITATION AROUND BRISTOL BAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. OVERNIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
MOST AREAS OF THE MAINLAND. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TOMORROW WHILE THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. ANOTHER WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND WIND THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING FRONT WILL TAPER OFF
THIS MORNING...ONLY TO BEGIN ANEW TONIGHT AS THE WAVE ON THE FIREHOSE
REACHES THE COAST WITH THE SECOND FRONT. PRECIPITATION AND WIND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AND DIMINISH FROM THE EAST FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT
AS THE THIRD FRONT MOVES WEST. SAT INTO SUN WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MUCH THE SAME AS THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN
STAYS PRETTY STEADY STATE. WHILE BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEY ARE JUST AS QUICK TO BUILD THE RIDGE BACK
OVERHEAD. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CURRENT PATTERN AND THE
FORECAST PATTERN IS THE LACK OF STORMINESS AS THE RIDGING LOOKS TO BE
DRY AND LESS WINDY. BEFORE THAT HOWEVER THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 174 179 180 181 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS/ML JAN 14