Freezing Rain Advisory 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST TUE JAN 14 2014

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC/ALASKA IS CREATING SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES FOR THE MODELS. THE
ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE THOUGH IT DID SHOW
A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF A LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AK PEN THU
NIGHT. OVERALL THERE IS LITTLE MODEL CONFIDENCE MUCH BEYOND 48 HRS.
SO FOR NOW WILL JUST MAKE MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM BEYOND 48 HRS.

...ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
SAT/SURFACE OBS SHOWS A STACKED SURFACE LOW SKIRTING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. THERE ARE FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN
THE WAKE OF THIS CENTER AS EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
BARREN ISLANDS AND NORTHWEST GULF. RAIN/SNOW WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL. SNOW SHOWERS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA.

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVELS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
AS THE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
WESTERN CANADA. AS A RESULT STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
GULF AND MAINLAND AND SHIFTS THE STORM TRACK NORTH. THIS THEN WILL
TRANSLATE INTO ALTERNATE WINDY...WARM...AND WET CONDITIONS OVER THE
MAINLAND THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE SOUTH SKIRTING LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN KENAI WILL MOVE OVER
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS AFTERNOON THE INLAND OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT. SNOW SHOULD INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN
COOK INLET AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
WEAK COLD ADVECTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A
WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF WED WILL BRING RAIN TO KODIAK
AND THE NORTH GULF WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN COOK
INLET/MATSU LATE WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
RAIN ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS. PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE PERIODS OF STEADY PRECIPITATION. A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH TOWARD BRISTOL BAY WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES
WED. MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY OVER INLAND AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING. FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR BRISTOL BAY AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
FOR THE SAME PERIOD. PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THU BEFORE THE NEXT WARM AND MOIST SURGE THU NIGHT AND FRI.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
THE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BERING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE LOW IMPACT OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AND THE
BERING AS THE RIDGE AXIS RE-ESTABLISHES OVER THE ALCAN BORDER. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASON NORMALS FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH NEAR
NORMAL VALUES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...
MARINE...GALE...119 120 125 131 132 150 170 172 173 174 185
         FREEZING SPRAY...179 180 181 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 14