Flood Watch 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

474 
WGAK68 PAFC 051649
FFAAFC

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
849 AM AKDT MON MAY 5 2014

AKZ155-051800-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-140505T1700Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
849 AM AKDT MON MAY 5 2014

...FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKDT THIS MORNING ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM AKIAK TO KWETHLUK...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM AKIAK TO KWETHLUK
WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKDT THIS MORNING.

WHILE THE THREE SMALL ICE JAMS THAT FORMED IN THE AKIACHAK
CHANNEL REMAIN IN PLACE...THE KUSKOKUAC CHANNEL HAS CONTINUED TO
CARRY MOST OF THE FLOW WITHOUT IMPAIRMENT. IT HAS A HEAVY RUN OF
CHUNK ICE AND SMALL PANS. THE RIVER ICE IS MOVING PAST ALL
DOWNSTREAM VILLAGES SO THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 9 AM AKDT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
356 PM AKDT SUN MAY 4 2014

.UPDATE...

KUSKOKWIM DELTA...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER HAS EXPIRED. PLEASE
SEE THE EXPIRATION BULLETIN FOR MORE DETAILS.

UPDATE...JAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM AKDT SUN MAY 4 2014/

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST WITH A SOUTHWARD
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A WEAK ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH ABOUT SLEETMUTE THEN INTO CENTRAL ALASKA. AN UPPER LOW
IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS WITH
ALL OF THE MAIN FEATURES. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THEY
HANDLE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH VARIOUS FEATURES...BUT
NOTHING THAT CAN'T BE HANDLED WITH CREATIVE USE OF "POPS".

SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN
PROTECTING SOUTH CENTRAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OR SO WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE PARENT HIGH (OVER THE GULF) CONTINUES TO
RETREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
ALASKA AND TALKEETNA RANGES BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRECIPITATION FROM A LEADING FRONT WILL REACH KODIAK MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
BREAKS APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES WILL BE IN THE "CHANCE" RANGE FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE
EASTERN KENAI AND THE ALASKA RANGE. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK ON
TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LEADING FRONT WILL REACH THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INLAND MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT GETTING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
BETHEL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 170 172 173 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAY 14