Brisk Wind Advisory 20, NWS Anchorage, AK

836 
FZAK51 PAFC 092338
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101500-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 40 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 140 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND AT 969 MB MONDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR THE
BARREN ISLANDS AT 978 MB TUESDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ119-101500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-101500-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-101500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-101500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-101500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ127-101500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-101500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-101500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-101500-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-101500-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-101500-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-101500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-101500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-101500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-101500-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-101500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ141-101500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT MAR 8 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 970S LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. THE OCCLUDED
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PUSHING WEST AND WEAKENING...BUT IS BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
AND EASTERN KENAI PEN WITH INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENTS CAUSED BY THE
SQUEEZE BETWEEN THIS GULF LOW AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH SUBSIDENCE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS COOK INLET/KENAI PEN.

OUT WEST...GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BERING SEA AND MIXED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS OVERALL WERE OK. THE GFS STILL IS THE FASTEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE DEVELOPING STORM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM WERE MUCH SLOWER. THE
ECMWF...WHICH AS ONE OF THE SLOWER MODELS...HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS. SO SINCE GRIDS CURRENTLY
HAVE A EC LOOK AND THE MODEL LOOKS REASONABLE...FEW CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT ALONG THE NORTH
GULF THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUPPORT CONTINUED GAP FLOWS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SUN AS GRADIENTS WEAKEN. ONSHORE FLOW RAPIDLY INCREASES LATE
SUNDAY AS A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
COMMENCES. WITH THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WITH A WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE GULF COAST LATE
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN TOWARD KODIAK AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW AT LEAST IN THE BEGINNING FOR THE GULF COAST.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AS
WELL AS BLIZZARD POSSIBLE SNOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE THREAT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION
WILL THEN RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND EARLY MONDAY AS A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT TRACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SNOW...SOUTH WILL PROBABLY MIX
WITH RAIN OVER THE AK PEN.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING BY MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTH PACIFIC
LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN TO THE VICINITY OF KODIAK ISLAND AND
SPREADS SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA. BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
OVER THESE AREAS...AS THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL COULD REMAIN EAST OF
DUTCH HARBOR AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM ACROSS THE
AKPEN DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE COMING
DAYS.

LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MARKED
BY INCREASED PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF NORTH PACIFIC LOWS
TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
OVER THE NORTHER GULF COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL THEN FOLLOW CLOSELY
ON ITS HEELS IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS IT TAKES A
VERY SIMILAR TRACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES
ALONG THE COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH...125
MARINE...GALES...132 352 150 155 165 170 172 174 176 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...179 185.

RMC MAR 14