Brisk Wind Advisory 18, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST FRI MAR 7 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA...BUT ARE NOW SMALL ENOUGH THAT IT ONLY IS CAUSING
MINOR DIFFICULTIES WITH THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ALSO DISAGREE ON
THE LOCATION OF A LOW SPINNING UP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND THESE DIFFERENCES CARRY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN THIS
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS WITH THE FORECAST. THIS IS A
MUCH STRONGER LOW AND THE MODELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO "HONE IN" ON A
SOLUTION IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS...AND FORECASTS CAN BE TRENDED TOWARD
A CONSENSUS SOLUTION UNTIL THE MODELS WORK OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY
MOVE WEST DURING THE WEEKEND. THE GULF LOW WILL PUSH NORTH TO THE
GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF ANCHORAGE. ON SUNDAY
NIGHT THIS LOW WILL BE EJECTED EASTWARD AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES
TOWARD ALASKA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS STRONGER LOW WILL PUSH A
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA ON MONDAY...THE BEGINNING OF A
PATTERN CHANGE TO A WARMER AND WETTER REGIME FOR NEXT WEEK.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROTECT THE AREA FROM ANY
SYSTEMS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE STRONGER
LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION SETS UP JUST TO THE WEST OF ALASKA. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONLY MODERATELY ABOVE NORMAL...AND NOTHING
UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
(LIQUID/FREEZING/FROZEN) IS EXPECTED...BUT MAINLY SNOW FOR INLAND
AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAR 14