Brisk Wind Advisory 15, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN FEB 23 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALOFT IS DOMINATING THE PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAND. A COMPLEX UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PARTNERS WITH IT OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN BERING
SEA TO FILL OUT THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN OVER ALASKA. CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE UNDER THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WHILE MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LIE UNDER THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA.
RIGHT NOW THE REAL ACTION SITS BETWEEN THE ENHANCED GRADIENT FORCES A
JET OF 120+ KTS FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE CHUKCHI
PENINSULA. A DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE STREAM UNDER THE JET BRINGS
RAIN AND SNOW TO BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THOUGH DRY
DOWN-SLOPE WINDS OVER THE TERRAIN KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO DOMINANT H/L SYSTEMS STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DOWN THROUGH THE SURFACE MAKING FOR GUSTY WINDS INTO THE 50 AND 60
MPH RANGE AROUND BRISTOL BAY...SLIGHTLY LESS FOR THE THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...FROM A SYNOPTIC AND PLANETARY LONG-WAVE
PERSPECTIVE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE/BLOCK TYPE PATTERN. THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS
COMES WITH THE PHASING OF SEPARATE PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THE
BERING/PACIFIC TROUGH TOWARD MID-WEEK. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
THE FRONT/GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL RELAX...THOUGH A
DE-AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A
STRONG MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC RETROGRADING AND
DEEPENING WHILE SWINGING A FRONT INTO THE GULF.
HOWEVER...STRENGTH...ORIENTATION...AND TIMING ARE STILL UP IN THE
AIR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DRY...CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE SOME LOW STRATUS AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE HANGING AROUND...AND SHOULD BUILD BACK IN AND
THICKEN DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY ACTIVE WEATHER
IS FROM KACHEMAK BAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND. A FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THE FRONT NORTHWARD AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ALEUTIAN/ALASKA RANGE AND
THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL COMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM
SWINGS INTO THE GULF...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FOR
THE MAINLAND. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES
WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN PLACE THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR WILL STILL HAVE GUSTS TOWARD 50 AND 60
MPH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY QUIET. THOUGH
REMAINING UNDER THE TROUGH...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS LOOK TO DEVELOP.
SEVERAL WEAK AND COMPACT SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE CHAIN BEFORE A
STRONG FRONT SWINGS OVERHEAD BY MID-WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO CHANGE MUCH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OUT OVER THE FAR
WESTERN BERING. A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FOR
THE MOST PART OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA. SEVERAL WAVES
WILL EMBED IN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AND BE USHERED FROM WESTERN GULF
INTO THE EASTERN BERING. BUT AT THIS TIME...NONE OF THESE APPEAR TO
SHOW SIGNS OF BECOME A MAJOR STORM. IT LOOKS AS IF AREAS BASICALLY
FROM THE ALASKA RANGE EAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WHILE WET WEATHER
WILL PERSIST FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH BRISTOL BAY. EACH
WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ROUNDS OF GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO
THE FAVORED GAP SOUTHEAST FLOW LOCATIONS. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 161
MARINE...GALE 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 150 160 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL FEB 14