Brisk Wind Advisory 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

151 
FZAK52 PAFC 210029
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211500-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 MB COMPLEX LOW 410 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
TO 970 MB 180 NM NORTHEAST OF ADAK FRI AFTERNOON. THIS COMPLEX LOW
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TO 965 MB 270 NM NORTH OF
SHEMYA SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-211500-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-211500-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-211500-
BRISTOL BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-211500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT W OF PORT
MOLLER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-211500-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-211500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-211500-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10
FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-211500-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-211500-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRI NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-211500-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9
FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-211500-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 8
FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-211500-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-211500-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-211500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-211500-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT N OF CAPE NEWENHAM IN THE
EVENING. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ181-211500-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  PATCHY
FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ185-211500-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 19 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS IN THE MIDST OF A TRANSITION. THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS LINGERED AROUND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FOR THE PAST WEEK IS NOW
WEAKENING QUICKLY AND DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. AN IMPRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ACTED AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL OVERNIGHT HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED NORTHWARD.
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO IMPACT PRIMARILY
COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES.
MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD BUT MUCH LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER ITSELF IS LINGERING AROUND COOK INLET. OUT
WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING SEA. THIS IS GIVING A BOOST TO SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE LOWS IN
THE AREA. IN PARTICULAR...A COMPACT SYSTEM NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING...AND WILL BRING A ROUND OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINNING THIS EVENING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN
THE BERING WILL SEE MULTIPLE LOWS PINWHEELING AROUND THE OVERALL
UPPER LOW POSITION OVER THE COMING DAYS...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS OF TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES. OVERALL THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT...BUT A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS WILL BE
USED TO TWEAK THE FORECAST TODAY IN MOSTLY MINOR WAYS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW CENTER OVER
COOK INLET WILL KEEP THE COASTLINES UNDER A SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE WEAK UPPER TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
CENTER WILL ALSO LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
AROUND COOK INLET THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINOR. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST.

SOUTHWEST...PARTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY. AS PRESSURE DROPS IN
THE BERING SEA FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE AT THE SURFACE
BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
WARMER AIR TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
DEVELOPING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THE COAST WILL
SEE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE FRONTS
STALL AND WEAKEN JUST OFFSHORE. INTERIOR AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING DRAMATICALLY BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A SMALL BUT SURPRISINGLY POTENT LOW IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OVERNIGHT OF STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR END OF THE CHAIN...WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER EAST...ANOTHER
SHORT-LIVED BUT SURPRISINGLY STRONG LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE BERING
SEA TONIGHT AND DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO
THIS AREA AS WELL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BASED ON MARGINALLY
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM...AND AN EASTERLY
(RATHER THAN A NORTHERLY) WIND DIRECTION...THINK THE AREA WILL BE
ABLE TO AVOID BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THUS WILL PLAN TO CHANGE THE
BLIZZARD WATCH TO A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
RETURNING TO ALASKA SIMILAR BY THIS WEEKEND. A DEEP COMPLEX LOW WILL
SET UP IN THE BERING SEA WITH RIDGING FURTHER EAST OVER THE MAINLAND.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT RIDGING STAYING ENTRENCHED OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE WHILE A NEGATIVELY TILTED LARGE
TROUGH/COMPLEX LOW STRETCHES FROM THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195 AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 191
MARINE...GALE 178 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 136 137 139 141 160 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD/MTL FEB 14