Brisk Wind Advisory 12, NWS Anchorage, AK

750 
FZAK52 PAFC 190026
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191500-
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A WEATHER FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A 990 MB LOW 280 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA THIS EVENING INTENSIFIES TO 986
MB AS IT MOVES TO 90 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA THU MORNING. A 995 MB LOW
WILL FORM 310 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WED MORNING AND THEN INTENSIFY TO
989 MB AS IT MOVES TO 90 NM EAST OF ATKA WED NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
THEN TRACK TO 80 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 989 MB THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-191500-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE NEAR MORNING. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-191500-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE
WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO
11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-191500-
BRISTOL BAY
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE EVENING.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-191500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT W 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY MAINLY E OF PORT MOLLER. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-191500-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-191500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-191500-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-191500-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-191500-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-191500-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-191500-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-191500-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...BERING SIDE...E WIND 40 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 30 KT
BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE. 
.WED NIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-191500-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-191500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-191500-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ181-191500-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ185-191500-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 18 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1150 AM AKST MON FEB 17 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A VERY LARGE AND COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS LOW EXTENDS ACROSS ALL OF ALASKA. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TRACKING THE MANY WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW. A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THESE
FEATURES (AND ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION) ARE ON THE WEAK
SIDE. HOWEVER...COLD AIR ALOFT HAS PRODUCED SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE THE LOW CENTER WHERE 500 MB TEMPS ARE
SITTING AT 40 TO 45 BELOW ZERO. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVES IS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS. THE OTHER PROCESS AT PLAY IS A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AIR
STREAMING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BERING SEA...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF THE MANY WEAK FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOST NOTABLY...WITH SOME VERY WEAK
SURFACE ROTATIONS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA...ALL MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT OFF ON LOW CENTER PLACEMENT.

OBSERVATIONS COMBINED WITH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE THE BEST
BET FOR THE VERY SHORT-TERM FORECAST.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS THE PHASING OF
TWO SHORT-WAVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY TUESDAY WHICH LEADS
TO STRENGTHENING OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE
GFS IS A CLEAR OUTLIER WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT BECOMES MORE AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALL OF THE
OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW A SIMILAR POSITION. EXPECT A FAIRLY NARROW
BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...SO THE EXACT
POSITION IS CRITICAL TO DETERMINING WHICH AREAS WILL OBSERVE THE
GREATEST IMPACTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THAT HEAVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR...BUT SINCE MODELS HAVE JUST STARTED TO REALLY
LOCK ON TO THIS EVENT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOCATION OF HEAVIEST SNOW.

NOTE...THE 18Z NAM LOOKS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT WITH HANDLING OF
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF...BUT WILL NOT STRAY FROM THE
ORIGINAL PLAN AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AN UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO MOST OF THE SNOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COASTAL
REGION (PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA).

A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD. AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION ABOVE...A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GULF AND LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. MEANWHILE A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
AND KENAI PENINSULA. THIS IS A GOOD SET-UP FOR SNOW FROM THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE KEY ASPECTS
WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN AREA OF INTENSE SNOWFALL. FIRST...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON MORE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION A FAIRLY
STRONG 500 MB JET WILL BE POINTED TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA WITH
AN AREA OF SPEED DIVERGENCE INDICATING ENHANCED UPWARD MOTION.
SECOND...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE...WHICH WILL JUST
ADD TO THE VERTICAL MOTION BEING GENERATED BY THE UPPER TROUGH
AND JET. THE CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE AREA OF
GREATEST LIFT WILL BE. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON AN AVERAGE POSITION OF
THE MODELS (EXCLUDING THE GFS) IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
FALL IN THE WHITTIER TO GIRDWOOD AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM CORRIDOR
WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS THE LARGER AREA
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND INTO
ANCHORAGE. WILL TREND TOWARD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...RECOGNIZING
THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE UPPED EVEN FURTHER ONCE THERE IS BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR WINDS IS WHITTIER TO
EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM. SINCE THE BIGGER THREAT LOOKS TO BE THE HEAVY
SNOW...WILL LIKELY ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW ISSUES IN
THOMPSON PASS...ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL IN THAT AREA WILL BE A LOT LESS
IMPRESSIVE. WILL CONSIDER ISSUING A BLIZZARD WATCH UNTIL CAN NAIL
DOWN THE DETAILS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHEAR APART AS IT TRIES TO ROTATE BACK
AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER LOW
WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME RE-CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA. SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE UPPER LOW EXITS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ON THE DRY
AND COLD SIDE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT TRANSITIONS
TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GULF TROUGH TO WORK ITS WAY WESTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA
RANGE INTO THE SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY.
IF IT DOES MAKE IT ACROSS EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING/EASTERN SIBERIA WILL DIG SOUTHWESTWARD THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
CUTS-OFF AND RETREATS NORTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE BERING SEA WHICH WILL
BRING AN END TO THE DEEP AND COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BERING SEA. THUS...EXPECT WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD
IN THE GULF AND THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN BERING...FLOW
WILL BECOME ZONAL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL ELONGATE SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN...BRINGING SOME PRECIP AS FAR NORTH AS THE CHAIN. AS THE
WESTERN BERING TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY MID WEEK FLOW WILL THEN
SHIFT ENOUGH TO BRING PACIFIC SYSTEMS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT IS IN
STORE LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OUT
WEST LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE COMPLEX LOW OVER THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS/NORTHWEST PACIFIC WHICH THEN LEADS TO AMPLIFICATION
OF A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO MUCH MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS AND A WARM-UP TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA. IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT THE
EXTENT OF THE WARM-UP WILL BE...BUT THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
EXTREME WARM-UPS LIKE WE HAD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JANUARY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...150 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB FEB 14