Tornado Warning 14, NWS Aberdeen, SD

711 
WWUS53 KABR 232243
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
543 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SDC045-049-232300-
/O.CON.KABR.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-140823T2300Z/
FAULK SD-EDMUNDS SD-
543 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL EDMUNDS AND
NORTH CENTRAL FAULK COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 540 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR NORBECK...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF FAULKTON...MOVING
NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
         LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHERN FAULK AND SOUTHERN EDMUNDS   
COUNTIES. FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4534 9924 4533 9897 4520 9903 4520 9919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 187DEG 17KT 4523 9912

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
CURRENT OBS ARE SHOWING SLOW PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. THE LOW IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED WITH A
COUPLE OF WINDS SHIFTS/FRONTS SETTING UP. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ANOTHER WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD THERE HAS BEEN SOME ENHANCED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER ONLY SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. WITH MOST OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT CORSON AND DEWEY...WHERE RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME THINNING AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF OUR
CWA /TEMPERATURE AT KHON IS CURRENTLY 81 DEGREES VS. TEMPERATURE AT
KATY ONLY 72 DEGREES/. AS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT THE SPC MESO
ANALYSIS PAGE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED CAPE
ACROSS OUR CWA...SO CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE BASED STORMS IS LOW. AT
THE VERY LEAST...WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES...ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT. PWATS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH /NEAR 2 INCHES/ SO HEAVY
RAIN REMAINS A THREAT WITH STORMS TONIGHT AS WELL. AS DOES LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF CAM MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF STORMS TONIGHT. THEY
AGREE FAIRLY WELL...WITH THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AROUND 00Z...REACHING THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY THE 06Z-
09Z TIME PERIOD.

THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE THE MAIN UPPER LOW THERE
IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST CWA SUNDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH
THE RETURN OF POPS TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. COOL AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE LONG TERM FEATURES A COOL PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOWS A GOOD LOW PRESSURE
AREA/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH
A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THIS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LESSER
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. OTHERWISE...COOL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST SHOULD KEEP IT MOSTLY DRY ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S
FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SURFACE WARM FRONT KICKING NORTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF THE REGION. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING AS
THEY LIFT QUICKLY NORTH. ALSO...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVES
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO
END AND CLOUDS TO MOVE OUT. IT COULD GET BREEZY FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CORSON-DEWEY.

MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
440 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-240945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
440 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014 /340 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
TOO...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TMT