Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
618 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

.UPDATE...

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA. WILL SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
ACTION AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY WEST OF THE REGION TRACKS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE DAMPENING RIDGE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO TUESDAY NIGHT AS DECENT
SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL...SO
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SMALL POPS
IN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS DURING THAT TIME...WHICH MAY RESULT IN DRY OR DRYING
CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
AROUND 90 OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WILL THEN SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

A GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL
STILL PROVIDE FOR SOME CHANCES OF CONVECTION DESPITE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE BEING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE ABR CWA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. POPS ARE THEREFORE BROAD BRUSH DUE TO LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT TREND WARMER AGAIN BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AFTER PATCHY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH DAKOTA
MAY AFFECT KABR THIS MORNING...BUT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE LATER
TODAY AND TNT FOR KMBG/KPIR AS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
433 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-050945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
433 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2014 /333 AM MDT MON AUG 4 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PARKIN

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