River Flood Warning 8, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
340 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...KEEPING FAST MOVING ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH
THE FLOW. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER LOOKS TO COME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH THE CWA AROUND MID
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 2000-4000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 30 TO 40
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. THIS IS NOT A CRAZY
HIGH AMOUNT OF SHEAR...SO STORMS MAY BE A BIT SLOW MOVING. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO TORNADIC THREAT LOOKS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP
IN...BUT THINGS THEN DRY UP SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST.

FAIRLY WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...THEN WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE
REGION. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST OF HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN INVADING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING ABOVE CLIMO BY FRIDAY. OF COURSE WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES COMES INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BELOW 12
KNOTS AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
430 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-210930-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-
HAMLIN-DEUEL-
430 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT LATER IN THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY...AND SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051-210930-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-
FAULK-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
430 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014 /330 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SERR