River Flood Warning 3, NWS Aberdeen, SD

163 
WGUS83 KABR 142028
FLSABR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
328 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN SOUTH 
DAKOTA...

  BIG SIOUX RIVER NEAR CASTLEWOOD

.THE FOLLOWING RIVER FORECASTS INCLUDE FORECAST PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY ADDITIONAL FUTURE PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT 
THE FORECASTS. 
 
SNOW MELT RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMMING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
BIG SIOUX RIVER NEAR CASTLEWOOD ELEVATED WITH MINOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...FLOOD WATERS CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS. NEVER DRIVE 
ACROSS A FLOODED ROAD...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CHECK OUT OUR WEB SITE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABR...THEN LEFT CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.

&&

SDC057-151800-
/O.EXT.KABR.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140315T1800Z/
/CSWS2.1.ER.140314T1030Z.140314T1500Z.140315T1200Z.NO/
328 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG SIOUX RIVER NEAR CASTLEWOOD
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...
* AT 2PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.5 FEET...
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST...
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET...
* FORECAST...THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AND 
  WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 9.6 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 9.2 FEET...THE ROAD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF CASTLEWOOD IS 
  OVERTOPPED.  



LAT...LON 4480 9709 4469 9706 4461 9701 4454 9692
      4454 9689 4480 9703             

$$

040 
WGUS83 KABR 151138
FLSABR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
638 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN SOUTH 
DAKOTA...

  BIG SIOUX RIVER NEAR CASTLEWOOD

.THE FOLLOWING RIVER FORECASTS INCLUDE FORECAST PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY ADDITIONAL FUTURE PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT 
THE FORECASTS. 
 
THE BIG SIOUX NEAR CASTLEWOOD IS EXPECTED TO CREST AROUND 10 FT
LATER TODAY...AND THEN BEGIN A SLOW FALL.  RELATIVELY MINOR FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BIG SIOUX THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...FLOOD WATERS CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS. NEVER DRIVE 
ACROSS A FLOODED ROAD...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CHECK OUT OUR WEB SITE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABR...THEN LEFT CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.

&&

SDC057-161538-
/O.EXT.KABR.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140317T0215Z/
/CSWS2.1.ER.140314T1030Z.140314T1500Z.140316T2015Z.NO/
638 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG SIOUX RIVER NEAR CASTLEWOOD
* UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
* AT 06AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.7 FEET...
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST...
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET...
* FORECAST...THE RIVER ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE  AND WILL CONTINUE 
  RISING TO NEAR 10.0 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* AT 9.2 FEET...THE ROAD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF CASTLEWOOD IS 
  OVERTOPPED.  

&&


LAT...LON 4480 9709 4469 9706 4461 9701 4454 9692
      4454 9689 4480 9703             

$$

680 
WGUS83 KABR 151457
FLSABR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
957 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN SOUTH 
DAKOTA...

  BIG SIOUX RIVER NEAR CASTLEWOOD

.THE FOLLOWING RIVER FORECASTS INCLUDE FORECAST PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY ADDITIONAL FUTURE PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT 
THE FORECASTS. 


THE BIG SIOUX NEAR CASTLEWOOD IS EXPECTED TO CREST AROUND 10.2 FT
LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN BEGIN A SLOW FALL. RELATIVELY MINOR FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BIG SIOUX THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...FLOOD WATERS CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS. NEVER DRIVE 
ACROSS A FLOODED ROAD...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CHECK OUT OUR WEB SITE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABR...THEN LEFT CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.

&&

SDC057-161857-
/O.EXT.KABR.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140317T1000Z/
/CSWS2.1.ER.140314T1030Z.140316T0600Z.140317T0400Z.NO/
957 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG SIOUX RIVER NEAR CASTLEWOOD
* UNTIL TOMORROW LATE EVENING...
* AT 9 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET...
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST...
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET...
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.2 FEET AROUND
  MIDNIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
* AT 11.0 FEET...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PASTURE AND OTHER 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS WILL BE FLOODED.  

&&


LAT...LON 4480 9709 4469 9706 4461 9701 4454 9692
      4454 9689 4480 9703             

$$

127 
WGUS83 KABR 161445
FLSABR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
945 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN SOUTH 
DAKOTA...

  BIG SIOUX RIVER NEAR CASTLEWOOD

.THE FOLLOWING RIVER FORECASTS INCLUDE FORECAST PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY ADDITIONAL FUTURE PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT 
THE FORECASTS. 


THE BIG SIOUX NEAR CASTLEWOOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...FLOOD WATERS CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS. NEVER DRIVE 
ACROSS A FLOODED ROAD...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CHECK OUT OUR WEB SITE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABR...THEN LEFT CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.


&&

SDC057-170900-
/O.EXT.KABR.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140317T0900Z/
/CSWS2.1.ER.140314T1030Z.140316T0716Z.140317T0300Z.NO/
945 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG SIOUX RIVER NEAR CASTLEWOOD
* UNTIL TONIGHT...
* AT 8 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET...
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST...
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET...
* AT 9.2 FEET...THE ROAD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF CASTLEWOOD IS 
  OVERTOPPED.  

&&

LAT...LON 4480 9709 4469 9706 4461 9701 4454 9692
      4454 9689 4480 9703             

$$

055 
WGUS83 KABR 170312
FLSABR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1012 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014




.THE FOLLOWING RIVER FORECASTS INCLUDE FORECAST PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY ADDITIONAL FUTURE PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT 
THE FORECASTS. 
 
THE BIG SIOUX RIVER NEAR CASTLEWOOD HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. 
 


FLOOD WATERS CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS. AVOID DRIVING YOUR ONTO A FLOODED
ROADWAY AS IT ONLY TAKES A LIMITED AMOUNT OF FLOWING WATER TO LIFT A 
VEHICLE OFF THE ROAD.  

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CHECK OUT OUR WEB SITE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABR...THEN LEFT CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.

NO FURTHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED.

SDC057-171200-
/O.EXT.KABR.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140317T1200Z/
/CSWS2.1.ER.140314T1030Z.140316T0716Z.140317T0600Z.NO/
1012 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

* AT 9.2 FEET...THE ROAD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF CASTLEWOOD IS 
  OVERTOPPED.  

$$



&& 

LOCATION FLOOD  LATEST OBSERVED   MAXIMUM FORECAST   RECENT OBSERVED
         STAGE  STAGE  TIME       STAGE   TIME       CREST TIME



BIG SIOUX RIVER
CSWS2    9.0   8.97 SUN 10 PM   9.0  MON 1 AM    9.1  SUN 6 PM

350 
WGUS83 KABR 170336
FLSABR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1036 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014



...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN SOUTH 
DAKOTA...

  BIG SIOUX RIVER NEAR CASTLEWOOD

.THE FOLLOWING RIVER FORECASTS INCLUDE FORECAST PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY ADDITIONAL FUTURE PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT 
THE FORECASTS. 
 
THE BIG SIOUX RIVER AT CASTLEWOOD HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
 


FLOOD WATERS CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS. AVOID DRIVING YOUR ONTO A FLOODED
ROADWAY AS IT ONLY TAKES A LIMITED AMOUNT OF FLOWING WATER TO LIFT A 
VEHICLE OFF THE ROAD.  

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CHECK OUT OUR WEB SITE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABR...THEN LEFT CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING.

SDC057-170406-
/O.CAN.KABR.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140317T1200Z/
/CSWS2.1.ER.140314T1030Z.140316T0716Z.140317T0600Z.NO/
1036 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

* AT 9.2 FEET...THE ROAD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF CASTLEWOOD IS 
  OVERTOPPED.  

$$



&& 

LOCATION FLOOD  LATEST OBSERVED   MAXIMUM FORECAST   RECENT OBSERVED
         STAGE  STAGE  TIME       STAGE   TIME       CREST TIME



BIG SIOUX RIVER
CSWS2    9.0   8.97 SUN 10 PM   9.0  MON 1 AM    9.1  SUN 6 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
655 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
UPSTREAM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID
MORNING. THUS...WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO COVER ANY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR ONE MORE DAY THANKS TO
AMPLE SUN...A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR MIXING...AND H85
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +2 AND -4C.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON A WEAK SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY
MORNING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW MOSTLY DUE TO RECENT
AND SIGNIFICANT MODEL SHIFTS IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST QPF. THE
GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS...WITH AN INITIAL WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION BAND FORMING OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WITH
BEST UPPER FORCING OVER WEST RIVER. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER WAVE WILL THEN TRANSITION OVER THE THE JAMES VALLEY AND
DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AS OPPOSED TO THE MO VALLEY IN
THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SUGGEST SOME
DRY/WARM AIR TO OVERCOME...SO EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIPITATION
TYPE...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS WARM LAYER MAY BE RELATED TO DAYTIME
HEATING...OVER WHICH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THANKS TO
QUESTIONS OVER HOME MUCH CLOUD COVER PRECEDES THE SYSTEM...AND HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS THAT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. SREF
PROBABILITIES ARE NOW RATHER HIGH FOR 1 INCH ACCUMULATION ALONG A
KBIS TO KATY AXIS...THOUGH THE 4 INCH PROBABILITY IS AT BEST ONLY
20 PERCENT. WILL TOP OUT SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/GFS AVERAGE...AND MUCH BELOW THE 3 TO 4 INCH
RANGE SUGGESTED BY THE NAM.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS DEALING WITH THE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR
WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...THEY ARE QUITE DIFFERENT WITH
THE ENERGY AND SFC FEATURES WITHIN THAT FLOW. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW ON TUESDAY VS THE GFS/GEM.
THIS HAS SOME FAIRLY BIG IMPLICATIONS ON JUST HOW MUCH AND WHAT
TYPE OF PCPN WE GET. BUT THE MODELS DO TEND TO AGREE ON FAIRLY
HEALTHY POPS SAID TIME PERIOD...SO WILL BE UPPING THEM SLIGHTLY
FROM MODEL BLEND. TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD FAVOR NEAR NORMAL
DURING THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOUTHEAST MOVING DECK OF STRATUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KABR/KATY
TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE REST OF THE DAY AND TNT SHOULD FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
329 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-150830-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
329 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014 /229 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

CONNELLY