Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Aberdeen, SD

895 
WWUS83 KABR 012305
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
605 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ272-273-020015-
/O.EXP.KABR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-141101T2300Z/
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-PRAIRIE COTEAU-RED RIVER VALLEY-
605 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 039...046...272 AND 273...

AS TEMPERATURES COOL THE WIND WILL DIMINISH...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN LOWER FIRE DANGER.

$$
TDK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SOUTH WINDS ARE RATHER GUSTY ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH A HEALTHY
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE DEALING WITH
THESE WINDS AS WELL AS THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER BY AFTERNOON.
TAKING A LOOK AT ALL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS WE
WILL BE FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS. WITH MARGINAL EVENT EXPECTED...DECIDED AGAINST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. SOME OBS
IN THE JAMES VALLEY MAY SEE LOW END ADVISORY FOR A TIME TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY
WHICH IS CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT OVERALL CONSENSUS FROM
SURROUNDING OFFICES WAS TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINE AND STRESS FIRE
DANGER IN OTHER PRODUCTS. AGAIN THOUGH...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS A HEADLINE MAY EVENTUALLY BE THE
WAY TO GO HERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ND ON SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL SPELL OUT EVEN
WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS STRONG
ON SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THIS FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH SO EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OUT PERIODS. MOST OF THE EXTENDED IS
DOMINATED BY SOME FORM OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE
CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO SWEEP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. SUPERBLEND POPS CONTINUE
TO RESPOND WITH SOME RATHER SMALL SLT CHANCE POPS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THESE SYSTEMS. BACK-DOOR COLD FRONTS WITH THESE SYSTEMS TRY
TO PUSH COOLER CANADIAN AIR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA.

&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-020900-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
348 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014 /248 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND DRY AIR...ALONG WITH DRY
FUELS WILL CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TMT