Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Aberdeen, SD

584 
WGUS73 KABR 020159
FFSABR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
859 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

SDC039-057-020214-
/O.CAN.KABR.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140602T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAMLIN SD-DEUEL SD-
859 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR DEUEL AND
SOUTHEASTERN HAMLIN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE 
WARNED AREA ARE RECEDING OR WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
HOURS...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE 
REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 4454 9646 4453 9668 4454 9702 4476 9689
      4498 9646 4494 9644 4455 9644

$$
DORN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
234 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I90...BUT IF STORMS CAN MAKE IT INTO OUR FAR
EASTERN CWA WHERE ML CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG AND UP
TO 20 KTS /MAYBE 30 KTS/ OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...THERE STILL COULD BE
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN WAVE OF ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. MODELS DO SHOW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...TRACKING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...BUT NOT AN OVERLY SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA. LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS STILL
EXITS...AND COULD BE MOVING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED 3+ INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WELL. AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXIST.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE BEFORE THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LATE ON WEDNESDAY A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
DAKOTAS. BEHIND THE SFC FRONT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN
ASSOCIATED PRECIP BEFORE AN UPPER LOW FORTIFIES THE SFC LOW AND
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. THOUGH THERE MAY BE BREAKS PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN ON
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WITH SOME AREAS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE SIXTIES ON SOME DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KPIR AND KATY. CIGS WILL BE ALL OVER
THE PLACE TODAY...RANGING FROM IFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION...TO VFR. VFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT
MAY FALL INTO THE IFR/MVFR CATEGORY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND
THE FRONT AS STORMS COME TO AN END TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-
     DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
     LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
519 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-021030-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
519 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 /419 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
ALSO...SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 212.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212. SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

TMT