Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Aberdeen, SD

915 
WGUS73 KABR 281022
FFSABR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
422 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SDC075-117-281036-
/O.CAN.KABR.FF.W.0020.000000T0000Z-140628T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JONES SD-STANLEY SD-
422 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN STANLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN JONES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

NO REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY 
RAIN HAS PASSED...THUS THE FLASH WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LAT...LON 4394 10108 4416 10105 4417 10116 4459 10117
      4470 10115 4472 10086 4395 10056

$$
TDK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
803 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO
ATTEMPT TO TIME ONE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION DEPARTING THE NERN CWA
AND TO TIME A COUPLE OF OTHER LONG LINES OF CONVECTION INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THERE ARE A LOT OF FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH TODAY AND SATURDAY. CURRENTLY THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV THAT
DEVELOPED OVER LYMAN COUNTY THIS MORNING ARE PUSHING NORTH INTO
ND. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS HAS FORMED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA.
WITH ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND AROUND 1000 J/KG CAPE
NONE OF THESE STORMS HAVE GONE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT HAS JUST
BEEN HEAVY RAIN AS THE STORMS HAVE TRAINED OVER THE SAME AREAS. BY
THEMSELVES THE STORMS ARE NOT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. BASED ON
AREA SOUNDINGS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT QUITE A BIT ABOVE 3000FT.
THAT SAID MOST OF THE SOIL IN THE REGION IS PRETTY WELL SATURATED
SO WILL NOT REACT WELL TO ANYTHING OVER 2 INCHES. THEREFORE LEFT
THE FFA IN PLACE...AND MAY EVEN NEED TO EXTEND IT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE MAIN TROUGH AND FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS HAS SLOWED
DOWN A BIT TODAY ACROSS WY. AS IT FINALLY MAKES IT WAY EAST AROUND
6Z STORMS WILL FIRE UP AND INTENSIFY SINCE IT WILL PROVIDE ABOUT
30 TO 40 KTS OF SHEAR. WHILE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...FEEL THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG A
QLCS TYPE LINE OR WITH AN MCS.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUNCHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HELP REINFORCE STORM
ACTIVITY. BY SUNDAY THOUGH A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRIER WITH MOST OF THE FORCING
REMAINING AROUND BUT NOT IN THIS CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A RELATIVELY COOL START TO THE LONG TERM AS AN UPPER LOW SKIRTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE WORK WEEK...AND AS OF NOW...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THIS PATTERN...SO THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY. 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE BY THE TAIL END
OF THE PERIOD...AND LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF VFR AND MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY DUE TO STRATUS OVER KATY EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR
IS IN PLACE ELSEWHERE. A STRONG FOR LATE JUNE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL INCLUDE A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SATURDAY FOR BROWN-
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-DEWEY-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
456 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-281000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
456 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 /356 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ALL POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING IS
A CONCERN FOR SOME AREAS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY BUT IT APPEARS THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO MINNESOTA. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SEVERE STORMS TO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
452 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ORIENT                  44.90N  99.09W
06/27/2014  M2.27 INCH       FAULK              SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400547

KG